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United Airlines Historical Volatility

Chapter II: Risks associated with short and long period price changes can be understood through Volatility Analysis. Here the impact of the Volatility Curve on the potential profitability positions across different time spans is shown.

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Daily Volatility = Price Range as a percent of the daily average price. of United Airlines

This chart shows Volatility for United Airlines, defined to be the price range as a portion of the average price:

Daily Volatility (the daily range as a portion of the daily average price) is plotted in green. Blue is Weekly Volatility, which is the weekly range as a portion of the weekly average price. It is important to avoid confusing this with the weekly average of the daily volatility, which is a completely different concept.

For reference, the price is plotted in red. Volatility, as measured through various intervals, ( Daily, Weekly, Monthly and Quarterly) is plotted according to color.

According to academic theory, Volatility is exactly equal to Risk. But investors often make a distinction between these two concepts. The different character of Volatility as seen in different time frames, lends some support to the investor's view.



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UAL:  Volatility Curve

You may be familiar with the "yield curve" which shows how interest bearing yields vary according to term. These Volatility Curves each apply to a discrete time interval. From left to right, each position plots the Volatility associated with increasing intervals of time. The relationship between the length of time, and the expected change in price, is not linear, as is demonstrated by this chart.



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UAL:  Daily Volatility Histogram

A frequency distribution of the green points on the first chart (the daily volatility) yields this histogram.



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UAL:  Quarterly Volatility Histogram

Similarly, the purple points on the top chart, the Quarterly Volatility Values, are subjected to frequency distribution here.

For Subscribers: Refined Analysis of United Airlines Volatility and Risk Behavior

Refined Volatility Risk Analysis for UAL :


Companies in the News:

In the news, Wednesday, July 01, 2009: An unfavorable condition has developed with Lexmark International, Inc., ticker symbol LXK. Also, there are breaking events concerning Lennar Corporation (LEN) and The Travelers Companies, Inc. (TRV)

More UAL Technical Analysis Topics

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Momentum Investing Indicators

UAL Classical Analysis of Time Series

UAL Historical Volume

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Back to UAL Table of Contents


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