Chapter II: Risks associated with short and long period price changes can be understood through Volatility Analysis. Here the impact of the Volatility Curve on the potential profitability positions across different time spans is shown. |
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This chart shows Volatility for Tyco, defined to be the price range as a portion of the average price: So, to derive the Daily Volatility on 6/30/2009 of 3.1%, the price range for the day (0.82) was divided by the average price (26.23). Daily Volatility (the daily range as a portion of the daily average price) is plotted in green. Blue is Weekly Volatility, which is the weekly range as a portion of the weekly average price. This is a different concept from the weekly average of daily volatility. The red plot shows the actual price. The remaining marks on the plot correspond to the Volatility measured across several time intervals. According to academic theory, Volatility is exactly equal to Risk. But investors often make a distinction between these two concepts. The different character of Volatility as seen in different time frames, lends some support to the investor's view. During 22 years, the Average Quarterly Volatility of TYC stock price has been 28% while the Average Daily Volatility has been 3%. |
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If you have ever seen a "yield curve" you should be able to understand the concept behind this "yield curve". Each Volatility Curve is a snapshot in time. From left to right, each position plots the Volatility associated with increasing intervals of time. However, as seen in this plot of the TYC Volatility Curve, the increase is not constant. |
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A frequency distribution of the green points on the first chart (the daily volatility) yields this histogram. |
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Similarly, the purple points on the top chart, the Quarterly Volatility Values, are subjected to frequency distribution here. |
Refined Volatility Risk Analysis for TYC : |
| In the news, Wednesday, July 01, 2009: An unfavorable condition has developed with Lexmark International, Inc., ticker symbol LXK. Also, there are breaking events concerning Lennar Corporation (LEN) and The Travelers Companies, Inc. (TRV) |