Chapter II: Risks associated with short and long period price changes can be understood through Volatility Analysis. Here the impact of the Volatility Curve on the potential profitability positions across different time spans is shown. |
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Volatility is defined as the price range for a period, divided by the average price for the period: For instance, on 11/3/2009 the average price was 28.15 with a range of 0.48, indicating a Daily Volatility of 1.7%. Daily Volatility (the daily range as a portion of the daily average price) is plotted in green. Blue is Weekly Volatility, which is the weekly range as a portion of the weekly average price. This is a different concept from the weekly average of daily volatility. The red plot shows the actual price. Volatility, as measured through various intervals, ( Daily, Weekly, Monthly and Quarterly) is plotted according to color. Investors often make a distinction between the concept of Volatility, and the concept of Risk. Academics define them to be exactly equivalent, but as can be seen here, there is good reason to distinguish between the levels of volatility or risk experienced across different time frames. During 26 years, the Average Quarterly Volatility of SGP stock price has been 22% while the Average Daily Volatility has been 3%. |
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You may be familiar with the "yield curve" which shows how interest bearing yields vary according to term. These Volatility Curves each apply to a discrete time interval. From left to right, each position plots the Volatility associated with increasing intervals of time. However, as seen in this plot of the SGP Volatility Curve, the increase is not constant. |
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This histogram is a frequency distribution of Daily Volatility, corresponding to the green points on the first chart on this page. |
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Similarly, the purple points on the top chart, the Quarterly Volatility Values, are subjected to frequency distribution here. |
Refined Volatility Risk Analysis for SGP : |
| In the news, Friday, March 12, 2010: An unfavorable condition has developed with ConAgra Foods, Inc., ticker symbol CAG. Also, there are breaking events concerning Zimmer Holdings, Inc. (ZMH) and Yum! Brands (YUM) |