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Volatility is defined as the price range for a period, divided by the average price for the period: For instance, on 8/27/2010 the average price was 32.25 with a range of 0.16, indicating a Daily Volatility of 0.4%. The Daily Volatility is obtained by dividing the daily range by the daily average. A longer Volatility period such as Weekly Volatility is obtained by dividing the weekly price range by the weekly mean price. This is a different concept from the weekly average of daily volatility. For reference, the price is plotted in red. Volatility, as measured through various intervals, ( Daily, Weekly, Monthly and Quarterly) is plotted according to color. Investors often make a distinction between the concept of Volatility, and the concept of Risk. Academics define them to be exactly equivalent, but as can be seen here, there is good reason to distinguish between the levels of volatility or risk experienced across different time frames. Average Daily Volatility over the history of PTV has been 3% in contrast to the Average Quarterly Volatility of 24%. |
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If you have ever seen a "yield curve" you should be able to understand the concept behind this "yield curve". Each Volatility Curve is a snapshot in time. From left to right, each position plots the Volatility associated with increasing intervals of time. However, as seen in this plot of the PTV Volatility Curve, the increase is not constant. |
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A frequency distribution of the green points on the first chart (the daily volatility) yields this histogram. |
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In a similar vein, the Frequency Distribution of the Quarterly Volatility is plotted here. This is the distribution of the values plotted in purple on the top chart from this page. |
Refined Volatility Risk Analysis for PTV : |
| Wednesday, September 01, 2010: We have news on priceline.com Incorporated, ticker symbol PCLN. A significant moving average event has happened. Also, there are breaking events concerning O'Reilly Automotive, Inc. and Boston Scientific Corporation. From the News Archive: (8/31/2010 ) Favorable events happened at J.B. Hunt Transport Services, Inc., Broadcom Corporation, Netease.com, Inc., and Rockwell Automation. |