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Volatility is defined as the price range for a period, divided by the average price for the period: So, to derive the Daily Volatility on 8/31/2010 of 2.7%, the price range for the day (1.38) was divided by the average price (50.79). Daily Volatility (the daily range as a portion of the daily average price) is plotted in green. Blue is Weekly Volatility, which is the weekly range as a portion of the weekly average price. It is important to avoid confusing this with the weekly average of the daily volatility, which is a completely different concept. The red plot shows the actual price. Volatility, as measured through various intervals, ( Daily, Weekly, Monthly and Quarterly) is plotted according to color. Investors often make a distinction between the concept of Volatility, and the concept of Risk. Academics define them to be exactly equivalent, but as can be seen here, there is good reason to distinguish between the levels of volatility or risk experienced across different time frames. During 22 years, the Average Quarterly Volatility of PNC stock price has been 22% while the Average Daily Volatility has been 3%. |
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You may be familiar with the "yield curve" which shows how interest bearing yields vary according to term. Each Volatility Curve is a snapshot in time. As the timespan across which Volatility is measured increases, the Volatility is expected to increase. However, as seen in this plot of the PNC Volatility Curve, the increase is not constant. |
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This histogram is a frequency distribution of Daily Volatility, corresponding to the green points on the first chart on this page. |
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Similarly, the purple points on the top chart, the Quarterly Volatility Values, are subjected to frequency distribution here. |
Refined Volatility Risk Analysis for PNC : |
| Tuesday, September 07, 2010: We have news on Brocade Communications Systems, Inc., ticker symbol BRCD. Signs of an over-bought condition have become noticable. Also, there are breaking events concerning Apartment Investment and Management Co. and Mitsui & Company, Ltd.. From the News Archive: (9/3/2010 ) Bad news came from Hewlett Packard, News Corporation, Discovery Communications, Inc, and Electronic Data Systems. |