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This chart shows Volatility for Pfizer, defined to be the price range as a portion of the average price: For instance, on 3/12/2010 the average price was 17.11 with a range of 0.24, indicating a Daily Volatility of 1.4%. Daily Volatility (the daily range as a portion of the daily average price) is plotted in green. Blue is Weekly Volatility, which is the weekly range as a portion of the weekly average price. It is important to avoid confusing this with the weekly average of the daily volatility, which is a completely different concept. For reference, the price is plotted in red. The remaining marks on the plot correspond to the Volatility measured across several time intervals. According to academic theory, Volatility is exactly equal to Risk. But investors often make a distinction between these two concepts. The different character of Volatility as seen in different time frames, lends some support to the investor's view. Average Daily Volatility over the history of PFE has been 2% in contrast to the Average Quarterly Volatility of 21%. |
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If you have ever seen a "yield curve" you should be able to understand the concept behind this "yield curve". These Volatility Curves each apply to a discrete time interval. From left to right, each position plots the Volatility associated with increasing intervals of time. The relationship between the length of time, and the expected change in price, is not linear, as is demonstrated by this chart. |
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This histogram is a frequency distribution of Daily Volatility, corresponding to the green points on the first chart on this page. |
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In a similar vein, the Frequency Distribution of the Quarterly Volatility is plotted here. This is the distribution of the values plotted in purple on the top chart from this page. |
Refined Volatility Risk Analysis for PFE : |
| In the news, Wednesday, March 17, 2010: An unfavorable condition has developed with CIGNA Corporation, ticker symbol CI. Also, there are breaking events concerning LoJack Corp (LOJN) and ConocoPhillips (COP) |