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This chart shows Volatility for Philip Morris, defined to be the price range as a portion of the average price: For instance, on 3/17/2010 the average price was 20.34 with a range of 0.23, indicating a Daily Volatility of 1.1%. Daily Volatility (the daily range as a portion of the daily average price) is plotted in green. Blue is Weekly Volatility, which is the weekly range as a portion of the weekly average price. This is a different concept from the weekly average of daily volatility. For reference, the price is plotted in red. The remaining marks on the plot correspond to the Volatility measured across several time intervals. According to academic theory, Volatility is exactly equal to Risk. But investors often make a distinction between these two concepts. The different character of Volatility as seen in different time frames, lends some support to the investor's view. Average Daily Volatility over the history of MO has been 2% in contrast to the Average Quarterly Volatility of 20%. |
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If you have ever seen a "yield curve" you should be able to understand the concept behind this "yield curve". Each Volatility Curve is a snapshot in time. As the timespan across which Volatility is measured increases, the Volatility is expected to increase. However, as seen in this plot of the MO Volatility Curve, the increase is not constant. |
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This histogram is a frequency distribution of Daily Volatility, corresponding to the green points on the first chart on this page. |
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In a similar vein, the Frequency Distribution of the Quarterly Volatility is plotted here. This is the distribution of the values plotted in purple on the top chart from this page. |
Refined Volatility Risk Analysis for MO : |
| In the news, Friday, March 19, 2010: An unfavorable condition has developed with Cincinnati Financial Corporation, ticker symbol CINF. Also, there are breaking events concerning Pre-Paid Legal (PPD) and Electronic Data Systems (EDS) |