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Lucent Technologies Historical Volatility

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LU:  Daily Volatility = Price Range as a percent of the daily average price.

Volatility is defined as the price range for a period, divided by the average price for the period:

So, to derive the Daily Volatility on 12/2/2005 of 1.7%, the price range for the day (0.05) was divided by the average price (2.84). Daily Volatility (the daily range as a portion of the daily average price) is plotted in green. Blue is Weekly Volatility, which is the weekly range as a portion of the weekly average price. It is important to avoid confusing this with the weekly average of the daily volatility, which is a completely different concept.

The red plot shows the actual price. Volatility, as measured through various intervals, ( Daily, Weekly, Monthly and Quarterly) is plotted according to color.

Investors often make a distinction between the concept of Volatility, and the concept of Risk. Academics define them to be exactly equivalent, but as can be seen here, there is good reason to distinguish between the levels of volatility or risk experienced across different time frames. Average Daily Volatility over the history of LU has been 5% in contrast to the Average Quarterly Volatility of 47%.



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Volatility Curve of Lucent Technologies

If you have ever seen a "yield curve" you should be able to understand the concept behind this "yield curve". These Volatility Curves each apply to a discrete time interval. From left to right, each position plots the Volatility associated with increasing intervals of time. The relationship between the length of time, and the expected change in price, is not linear, as is demonstrated by this chart.



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Daily Volatility Histogram of Lucent Technologies

A frequency distribution of the green points on the first chart (the daily volatility) yields this histogram.



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LU:  Quarterly Volatility Histogram

Similarly, the purple points on the top chart, the Quarterly Volatility Values, are subjected to frequency distribution here.

For Subscribers: Refined Analysis of Lucent Technologies Volatility and Risk Behavior

Refined Volatility Risk Analysis for LU :


Companies in the News:

In the news, Friday, February 05, 2010: A favorable condition has developed with United Technologies, ticker symbol UTX. Also, there are breaking events concerning ACM Income Fund (ACG) and MicroSoft (MSFT)

More LU Technical Analysis Topics

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Back to LU Table of Contents


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