Chapter II: Risks associated with short and long period price changes can be understood through Volatility Analysis. Here the impact of the Volatility Curve on the potential profitability positions across different time spans is shown. |
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This chart shows Volatility for General Mills, Inc., defined to be the price range as a portion of the average price: For instance, on 3/12/2010 the average price was 72.53 with a range of 0.95, indicating a Daily Volatility of 1.3%. Daily Volatility (the daily range as a portion of the daily average price) is plotted in green. Blue is Weekly Volatility, which is the weekly range as a portion of the weekly average price. It is important to avoid confusing this with the weekly average of the daily volatility, which is a completely different concept. The red plot shows the actual price. Volatility, as measured through various intervals, ( Daily, Weekly, Monthly and Quarterly) is plotted according to color. According to academic theory, Volatility is exactly equal to Risk. But investors often make a distinction between these two concepts. The different character of Volatility as seen in different time frames, lends some support to the investor's view. Average Daily Volatility over the history of GIS has been 2% in contrast to the Average Quarterly Volatility of 16%. |
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If you have ever seen a "yield curve" you should be able to understand the concept behind this "yield curve". These Volatility Curves each apply to a discrete time interval. From left to right, each position plots the Volatility associated with increasing intervals of time. However, as seen in this plot of the GIS Volatility Curve, the increase is not constant. |
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This histogram is a frequency distribution of Daily Volatility, corresponding to the green points on the first chart on this page. |
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Similarly, the purple points on the top chart, the Quarterly Volatility Values, are subjected to frequency distribution here. |
Refined Volatility Risk Analysis for GIS : |
| In the news, Friday, March 12, 2010: An unfavorable condition has developed with Convergys Corporation, ticker symbol CVG. Also, there are breaking events concerning ConAgra Foods, Inc. (CAG) and Pre-Paid Legal (PPD) |