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Volatility Analysis for Gilead Sciences, Inc.

Chapter II: This survey looks at historical volatility of Gilead Sciences, Inc. prices. The risks associated with long and short term positions can be evaluated according to projected shapes of the Volatility Curve.

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GILD:  Daily Volatility = Price Range as a percent of the daily average price.

Volatility is defined as the price range for a period, divided by the average price for the period:

So, to derive the Daily Volatility on 6/30/2009 of 1.8%, the price range for the day (0.85) was divided by the average price (47.08). Daily Volatility (the daily range as a portion of the daily average price) is plotted in green. Blue is Weekly Volatility, which is the weekly range as a portion of the weekly average price. It is important to avoid confusing this with the weekly average of the daily volatility, which is a completely different concept.

For reference, the price is plotted in red. Volatility, as measured through various intervals, ( Daily, Weekly, Monthly and Quarterly) is plotted according to color.

According to academic theory, Volatility is exactly equal to Risk. But investors often make a distinction between these two concepts. The different character of Volatility as seen in different time frames, lends some support to the investor's view. Average Daily Volatility over the history of GILD has been 5% in contrast to the Average Quarterly Volatility of 38%.



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Volatility Curve of Gilead Sciences, Inc.

If you have ever seen a "yield curve" you should be able to understand the concept behind this "yield curve". Each Volatility Curve is a snapshot in time. As the timespan across which Volatility is measured increases, the Volatility is expected to increase. The relationship between the length of time, and the expected change in price, is not linear, as is demonstrated by this chart.



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GILD:  Daily Volatility Histogram

This histogram is a frequency distribution of Daily Volatility, corresponding to the green points on the first chart on this page.



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GILD:  Quarterly Volatility Histogram

In a similar vein, the Frequency Distribution of the Quarterly Volatility is plotted here. This is the distribution of the values plotted in purple on the top chart from this page.

For Subscribers: Refined Analysis of Gilead Sciences, Inc. Volatility and Risk Behavior

Refined Volatility Risk Analysis for GILD :


Companies in the News:

Wednesday, July 01, 2009: We have news on Pitney Bowes Inc., ticker symbol PBI. A significant moving average event has happened. Also, there are breaking events concerning Public Service Enterprise Group Inc. and Pinnacle West Capital Corporation.

From the News Archive: (7/1/2009 ) A favorable event happened at The Travelers Companies, Inc.. Meanwhile, bad news came from Fiserv, Inc., MeadWestvaco Corp., and Nicor Inc..


More GILD Technical Analysis Topics

GILD Price Predictions

Support and Resistance Levels

Volume Stratification Analysis

Politics and Prices of GILD

Japanese Candlestick Analysis

GILD Classical Analysis of Time Series

GILD Historical Volume

GILD Seasonal Trends

Market Sentiment

Back to GILD Table of Contents


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