Chapter II: This survey looks at historical volatility of Fedex prices. The risks associated with long and short term positions can be evaluated according to projected shapes of the Volatility Curve. |
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Volatility is defined as the price range for a period, divided by the average price for the period: So, to derive the Daily Volatility on 3/17/2010 of 1.6%, the price range for the day (1.46) was divided by the average price (89.78). The Daily Volatility is obtained by dividing the daily range by the daily average. A longer Volatility period such as Weekly Volatility is obtained by dividing the weekly price range by the weekly mean price. This is a different concept from the weekly average of daily volatility. For reference, the price is plotted in red. The remaining marks on the plot correspond to the Volatility measured across several time intervals. According to academic theory, Volatility is exactly equal to Risk. But investors often make a distinction between these two concepts. The different character of Volatility as seen in different time frames, lends some support to the investor's view. Average Daily Volatility over the history of FDX has been 3% in contrast to the Average Quarterly Volatility of 35%. |
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If you have ever seen a "yield curve" you should be able to understand the concept behind this "yield curve". These Volatility Curves each apply to a discrete time interval. As the timespan across which Volatility is measured increases, the Volatility is expected to increase. However, as seen in this plot of the FDX Volatility Curve, the increase is not constant. |
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A frequency distribution of the green points on the first chart (the daily volatility) yields this histogram. |
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Similarly, the purple points on the top chart, the Quarterly Volatility Values, are subjected to frequency distribution here. |
Refined Volatility Risk Analysis for FDX : |
| Thursday, March 18, 2010: We have news on MicroSoft, ticker symbol MSFT. Signs of an over-bought condition have become noticable. Also, there are breaking events concerning Mylan Inc. and Patterson Companies, Inc.. From the News Archive: (3/17/2010 ) Favorable events happened at LoJack Corp and ACM Income Fund. Meanwhile, bad news came from LSI Corporation and Sempra Energy. |