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Walt Disney Historical Volatility

Chapter II: Risks associated with short and long period price changes can be understood through Volatility Analysis. Here the impact of the Volatility Curve on the potential profitability positions across different time spans is shown.

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Daily Volatility = Price Range as a percent of the daily average price. of Walt Disney

This chart shows Volatility for Walt Disney, defined to be the price range as a portion of the average price:

So, to derive the Daily Volatility on 6/30/2009 of 3%, the price range for the day (0.71) was divided by the average price (23.4). Daily Volatility (the daily range as a portion of the daily average price) is plotted in green. Blue is Weekly Volatility, which is the weekly range as a portion of the weekly average price. This is a different concept from the weekly average of daily volatility.

For reference, the price is plotted in red. The remaining marks on the plot correspond to the Volatility measured across several time intervals.

According to academic theory, Volatility is exactly equal to Risk. But investors often make a distinction between these two concepts. The different character of Volatility as seen in different time frames, lends some support to the investor's view. During 29 years, the Average Quarterly Volatility of DIS stock price has been 23% while the Average Daily Volatility has been 2%.



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Volatility Curve of Walt Disney

You may be familiar with the "yield curve" which shows how interest bearing yields vary according to term. Each Volatility Curve is a snapshot in time. From left to right, each position plots the Volatility associated with increasing intervals of time. The relationship between the length of time, and the expected change in price, is not linear, as is demonstrated by this chart.



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Daily Volatility Histogram of Walt Disney

A frequency distribution of the green points on the first chart (the daily volatility) yields this histogram.



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DIS:  Quarterly Volatility Histogram

Similarly, the purple points on the top chart, the Quarterly Volatility Values, are subjected to frequency distribution here.

For Subscribers: Refined Analysis of Walt Disney Volatility and Risk Behavior

Refined Volatility Risk Analysis for DIS :


Companies in the News:

Wednesday, July 01, 2009: We have news on Public Service Enterprise Group Inc., ticker symbol PEG. Signs of an over-bought condition have become noticable. Also, there are breaking events concerning The Travelers Companies, Inc. and Kellogg Company.

From the News Archive: (7/1/2009 ) Favorable events happened at Allegheny Energy, Inc., Bank of America Corporation, and American International Group, Inc.. Meanwhile, bad news came from Lexmark International, Inc..


More DIS Technical Analysis Topics

DIS Price Predictions

Support and Resistance Levels

Volume Stratification Analysis

Politics and Prices of DIS

Japanese Candlestick Analysis

DIS Classical Analysis of Time Series

DIS Historical Volume

DIS Seasonal Trends

Back to DIS Table of Contents


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