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Volatility Analysis for Calpine

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Daily Volatility = Price Range as a percent of the daily average price. of Calpine

This chart shows Volatility for Calpine, defined to be the price range as a portion of the average price:

For instance, on 10/19/2005 the average price was 2.38 with a range of 0.11, indicating a Daily Volatility of 4.6%. The Daily Volatility is obtained by dividing the daily range by the daily average. A longer Volatility period such as Weekly Volatility is obtained by dividing the weekly price range by the weekly mean price. This is a different concept from the weekly average of daily volatility.

The red plot shows the actual price. The remaining marks on the plot correspond to the Volatility measured across several time intervals.

According to academic theory, Volatility is exactly equal to Risk. But investors often make a distinction between these two concepts. The different character of Volatility as seen in different time frames, lends some support to the investor's view. During 9 years, the Average Quarterly Volatility of CPN stock price has been 55% while the Average Daily Volatility has been 5%.



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Volatility Curve of Calpine

You may be familiar with the "yield curve" which shows how interest bearing yields vary according to term. Each Volatility Curve is a snapshot in time. From left to right, each position plots the Volatility associated with increasing intervals of time. The relationship between the length of time, and the expected change in price, is not linear, as is demonstrated by this chart.



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Daily Volatility Histogram of Calpine

A frequency distribution of the green points on the first chart (the daily volatility) yields this histogram.



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CPN:  Quarterly Volatility Histogram

Similarly, the purple points on the top chart, the Quarterly Volatility Values, are subjected to frequency distribution here.

For Subscribers: Refined Analysis of Calpine Volatility and Risk Behavior

Refined Volatility Risk Analysis for CPN :


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More CPN Technical Analysis Topics

CPN Price Predictions

Support and Resistance Levels

Volume Stratification Analysis

Politics and Prices of CPN

Japanese Candlestick Analysis

Momentum Investing Indicators

CPN Classical Analysis of Time Series

CPN Historical Volume

CPN Seasonal Trends

Market Sentiment

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