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Volatility Analysis for Amazon

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AMZN:  Daily Volatility = Price Range as a percent of the daily average price.

Volatility is defined as the price range for a period, divided by the average price for the period:

So, to derive the Daily Volatility on 3/10/2010 of 2%, the price range for the day (2.69) was divided by the average price (129.82). The Daily Volatility is obtained by dividing the daily range by the daily average. A longer Volatility period such as Weekly Volatility is obtained by dividing the weekly price range by the weekly mean price. This is a different concept from the weekly average of daily volatility.

For reference, the price is plotted in red. Volatility, as measured through various intervals, ( Daily, Weekly, Monthly and Quarterly) is plotted according to color.

Investors often make a distinction between the concept of Volatility, and the concept of Risk. Academics define them to be exactly equivalent, but as can be seen here, there is good reason to distinguish between the levels of volatility or risk experienced across different time frames. Average Daily Volatility over the history of AMZN has been 5% in contrast to the Average Quarterly Volatility of 51%.



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Volatility Curve of Amazon

You may be familiar with the "yield curve" which shows how interest bearing yields vary according to term. Each Volatility Curve is a snapshot in time. As the timespan across which Volatility is measured increases, the Volatility is expected to increase. The relationship between the length of time, and the expected change in price, is not linear, as is demonstrated by this chart.



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Daily Volatility Histogram of Amazon

A frequency distribution of the green points on the first chart (the daily volatility) yields this histogram.



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Quarterly Volatility Histogram of Amazon

In a similar vein, the Frequency Distribution of the Quarterly Volatility is plotted here. This is the distribution of the values plotted in purple on the top chart from this page.

For Subscribers: Refined Analysis of Amazon Volatility and Risk Behavior

Refined Volatility Risk Analysis for AMZN :


Companies in the News:

In the news, Friday, March 19, 2010: An unfavorable condition has developed with Cincinnati Financial Corporation, ticker symbol CINF. Also, there are breaking events concerning Pre-Paid Legal (PPD) and Electronic Data Systems (EDS)

More AMZN Technical Analysis Topics

AMZN Price Predictions

Support and Resistance Levels

Volume Stratification Analysis

Politics and Prices of AMZN

Japanese Candlestick Analysis

Momentum Investing Indicators

AMZN Classical Analysis of Time Series

AMZN Historical Volume

AMZN Seasonal Trends

Market Sentiment

Back to AMZN Table of Contents


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