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This chart shows Volatility for American Airlines, defined to be the price range as a portion of the average price: For instance, on 2/5/2010 the average price was 7.06 with a range of 0.53, indicating a Daily Volatility of 7.5%. The Daily Volatility is obtained by dividing the daily range by the daily average. A longer Volatility period such as Weekly Volatility is obtained by dividing the weekly price range by the weekly mean price. It is important to avoid confusing this with the weekly average of the daily volatility, which is a completely different concept. The red plot shows the actual price. The remaining marks on the plot correspond to the Volatility measured across several time intervals. According to academic theory, Volatility is exactly equal to Risk. But investors often make a distinction between these two concepts. The different character of Volatility as seen in different time frames, lends some support to the investor's view. Average Daily Volatility over the history of AMR has been 4% in contrast to the Average Quarterly Volatility of 37%. |
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If you have ever seen a "yield curve" you should be able to understand the concept behind this "yield curve". These Volatility Curves each apply to a discrete time interval. As the timespan across which Volatility is measured increases, the Volatility is expected to increase. The relationship between the length of time, and the expected change in price, is not linear, as is demonstrated by this chart. |
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A frequency distribution of the green points on the first chart (the daily volatility) yields this histogram. |
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In a similar vein, the Frequency Distribution of the Quarterly Volatility is plotted here. This is the distribution of the values plotted in purple on the top chart from this page. |
Refined Volatility Risk Analysis for AMR : |
| In the news, Monday, February 08, 2010: A favorable condition has developed with American International Group, Inc., ticker symbol AIG. Also, there are breaking events concerning ACM Income Fund (ACG) and United Technologies (UTX) |