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Volatility is defined as the price range for a period, divided by the average price for the period: For instance, on 3/10/2010 the average price was 35.27 with a range of 4.14, indicating a Daily Volatility of 11.7%. The Daily Volatility is obtained by dividing the daily range by the daily average. A longer Volatility period such as Weekly Volatility is obtained by dividing the weekly price range by the weekly mean price. It is important to avoid confusing this with the weekly average of the daily volatility, which is a completely different concept. For reference, the price is plotted in red. Volatility, as measured through various intervals, ( Daily, Weekly, Monthly and Quarterly) is plotted according to color. According to academic theory, Volatility is exactly equal to Risk. But investors often make a distinction between these two concepts. The different character of Volatility as seen in different time frames, lends some support to the investor's view. Average Daily Volatility over the history of AIG has been 3% in contrast to the Average Quarterly Volatility of 27%. |
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You may be familiar with the "yield curve" which shows how interest bearing yields vary according to term. These Volatility Curves each apply to a discrete time interval. As the timespan across which Volatility is measured increases, the Volatility is expected to increase. However, as seen in this plot of the AIG Volatility Curve, the increase is not constant. |
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A frequency distribution of the green points on the first chart (the daily volatility) yields this histogram. |
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Similarly, the purple points on the top chart, the Quarterly Volatility Values, are subjected to frequency distribution here. |
Refined Volatility Risk Analysis for AIG : |
| Friday, March 19, 2010: We have news on L-3 Communications Holdings, Inc., ticker symbol LLL. Signs of an over-bought condition have become noticable. Also, there are breaking events concerning Mylan Inc. and TECO Energy, Inc.. From the News Archive: (3/18/2010 ) Bad news came from MicroSoft, General Electric, Sempra Energy, and Walmart. |