Volatility Analysis for Apple Computer
Volatility is defined as the price range for a period, divided by the average price for the period:|
So, to derive the Daily Volatility on 2/15/2011 of 0.6%, the price range for the day (2.42) was divided by the average price (358.76). The Daily Volatility is obtained by dividing the daily range by the daily average. A longer Volatility period such as Weekly Volatility is obtained by dividing the weekly price range by the weekly mean price. This is a different concept from the weekly average of daily volatility.
For reference, the price is plotted in red. Volatility, as measured through various intervals, ( Daily, Weekly, Monthly and Quarterly) is plotted according to color.
Investors often make a distinction between the concept of Volatility, and the concept of Risk. Academics define them to be exactly equivalent, but as can be seen here, there is good reason to distinguish between the levels of volatility or risk experienced across different time frames. During 27 years, the Average Quarterly Volatility of AAPL stock price has been 37% while the Average Daily Volatility has been 4%.
If you have ever seen a "yield curve" you should be able to understand the concept behind this "yield curve". Each Volatility Curve is a snapshot in time. From left to right, each position plots the Volatility associated with increasing intervals of time. However, as seen in this plot of the AAPL Volatility Curve, the increase is not constant. |
This histogram is a frequency distribution of Daily Volatility, corresponding to the green points on the first chart on this page. |
Similarly, the purple points on the top chart, the Quarterly Volatility Values, are subjected to frequency distribution here. |
For Subscribers: Refined Analysis of Apple Computer Volatility and Risk Behavior
Companies in the News:
|In the news, Friday, February 18, 2011: An unfavorable condition has developed with Aetna Inc., ticker symbol AET. Also, there are breaking events concerning Dollar Tree, Inc. (DLTR) and First Niagara Financial Group Inc. (FNFG)|
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