Apple Computer Historical Volatility
Volatility is defined as the price range for a period, divided by the average price for the period:|
So, to derive the Daily Volatility on 2/15/2011 of 0.6%, the price range for the day (2.42) was divided by the average price (358.76). The Daily Volatility is obtained by dividing the daily range by the daily average. A longer Volatility period such as Weekly Volatility is obtained by dividing the weekly price range by the weekly mean price. It is important to avoid confusing this with the weekly average of the daily volatility, which is a completely different concept.
For reference, the price is plotted in red. Volatility, as measured through various intervals, ( Daily, Weekly, Monthly and Quarterly) is plotted according to color.
Investors often make a distinction between the concept of Volatility, and the concept of Risk. Academics define them to be exactly equivalent, but as can be seen here, there is good reason to distinguish between the levels of volatility or risk experienced across different time frames. Average Daily Volatility over the history of AAPL has been 4% in contrast to the Average Quarterly Volatility of 37%.
You may be familiar with the "yield curve" which shows how interest bearing yields vary according to term. Each Volatility Curve is a snapshot in time. From left to right, each position plots the Volatility associated with increasing intervals of time. The relationship between the length of time, and the expected change in price, is not linear, as is demonstrated by this chart. |
This histogram is a frequency distribution of Daily Volatility, corresponding to the green points on the first chart on this page. |
In a similar vein, the Frequency Distribution of the Quarterly Volatility is plotted here. This is the distribution of the values plotted in purple on the top chart from this page. |
For Subscribers: Refined Analysis of Apple Computer Volatility and Risk Behavior
Companies in the News:
|Friday, February 18, 2011: We have news on Fiserv, Inc., ticker symbol FISV. Signs of an over-bought condition have become noticable. Also, there are breaking events concerning Zimmer Holdings, Inc. and D.R. Horton, Inc.. |
From the News Archive: (2/18/2011 ) Favorable events happened at Robert Half International Inc. and Southwestern Energy Company. Meanwhile, bad news came from McCormick & Company, Incorporated and Reynolds American, Inc..
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