Volatility Analysis for Apple Computer
Volatility is defined as the price range for a period, divided by the average price for the period:|
So, to derive the Daily Volatility on 2/15/2011 of 0.6%, the price range for the day (2.42) was divided by the average price (358.76). The Daily Volatility is obtained by dividing the daily range by the daily average. A longer Volatility period such as Weekly Volatility is obtained by dividing the weekly price range by the weekly mean price. This is a different concept from the weekly average of daily volatility.
The red plot shows the actual price. Volatility, as measured through various intervals, ( Daily, Weekly, Monthly and Quarterly) is plotted according to color.
According to academic theory, Volatility is exactly equal to Risk. But investors often make a distinction between these two concepts. The different character of Volatility as seen in different time frames, lends some support to the investor's view. Average Daily Volatility over the history of AAPL has been 4% in contrast to the Average Quarterly Volatility of 37%.
You may be familiar with the "yield curve" which shows how interest bearing yields vary according to term. These Volatility Curves each apply to a discrete time interval. From left to right, each position plots the Volatility associated with increasing intervals of time. However, as seen in this plot of the AAPL Volatility Curve, the increase is not constant. |
A frequency distribution of the green points on the first chart (the daily volatility) yields this histogram. |
Similarly, the purple points on the top chart, the Quarterly Volatility Values, are subjected to frequency distribution here. |
For Subscribers: Refined Analysis of Apple Computer Volatility and Risk Behavior
Companies in the News:
|Friday, February 18, 2011: We have news on Fiserv, Inc., ticker symbol FISV. Signs of an over-bought condition have become noticable. Also, there are breaking events concerning Zimmer Holdings, Inc. and McCormick & Company, Incorporated. |
From the News Archive: (2/18/2011 ) Bad news came from Reynolds American, Inc., Dollar Tree, Inc., Zimmer Holdings, Inc., and NVIDIA Corp.
More AAPL Technical Analysis Topics
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