Chapter XVI: Forecasts are gathered from several sources to predict future price movements. |
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Some recent Technical Signals and Predictions from several entities are combined on this illustration to show how they relate to each other on a scale with recent prices. On the left, the vertical red and green bars mark conventional technical signals. The impact of these signals is short-term, so they may only effect prices for a day or two. The longer-term target prices are the short red horizontal bars on the extreme right. The shaded green circles depict the probability densities of response surface forecasts. These are designed so that there is a 95 percent confidence that the price will touch the light green area and a 67 percent confidence that the priceline will touch the inner dark green region. Horizontal lower boundaries of conventional forecasts (floor prices) are green, and orange horizontal bars show ceiling prices. If the path to a target price crosses against a floor or ceiling, the resistance may prevent the target from being reached. |
Martha Stewart - Recent Technical SignalsA recent interesting signal was the SMA5Over200Divergence seen on Tuesday, February 16, 2010.
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This plot shows the actual results of last quarter's XML source forecasts. The green oval shapes represent the proprietary Indicator Response Surface projections from Hybrid Technical. Any report that is not accurate within the 95 percent confidence limit (outer light green shading) will be refunded in full. Full Access Subscribers receive double their money back. (* This offer is subject to restrictions outlined in the member agreement.) |
| Prediction #1 for MSO | ||
| Analyst: D.B. Veblen | Prediction: Ceiling Price | Base Date: 2/18/2010 |
| Nearest Volumetric Price Ceiling | Target Date: 5/17/2010 | |
| Base Price: $5.69 | Target Price: $8.50 |
| Prediction #2 for MSO | ||
| Analyst: D.B. Veblen | Prediction: Ceiling Price | Base Date: 2/18/2010 |
| Volumetric Mean As Ceiling | Target Date: 5/17/2010 | |
| Base Price: $5.69 | Target Price: $16.32 |
| Prediction #3 for MSO | ||
| Analyst: R.S.A. Smith | Prediction: Target Price | Base Date: 2/18/2010 |
| NVI Response90 | Target Date: 5/17/2010 | |
| Base Price: $5.69 | Target Price: $5.84 |
| Prediction #4 for MSO | ||
| Analyst: R.S. Adams | Prediction: Target Price | Base Date: 2/18/2010 |
| Phase200 Response90 | Target Date: 5/17/2010 | |
| Base Price: $5.69 | Target Price: $5.90 |
| Prediction #5 for MSO | ||
| Analyst: E.S. Chase | Prediction: Target Price | Base Date: 2/18/2010 |
| Monthly QuarterTerm Potential Appreciation | Target Date: 5/17/2010 | |
| Base Price: $5.69 | Target Price: $6.96 |
| Prediction #6 for MSO | ||
| Analyst: S.A. Chi | Prediction: Ceiling Price | Base Date: 2/18/2010 |
| Upper limit of typical Volatility | Target Date: 5/17/2010 | |
| Base Price: $5.69 | Target Price: $7.62 |
| Prediction #7 for MSO | ||
| Analyst: S.A. Chi | Prediction: Support Price | Base Date: 2/18/2010 |
| Lower limit of typical Volatility | Target Date: 5/17/2010 | |
| Base Price: $5.69 | Target Price: $4.26 |
| Prediction #8 for MSO | ||
| Analyst: T. Pearson | Prediction: Target Price | Base Date: 2/18/2010 |
| Political Calendar Monthly QuarterTerm Potential Appreciation | Target Date: 5/17/2010 | |
| Base Price: $5.69 | Target Price: $5.82 |
| Prediction #9 for MSO | ||
| Analyst: C.D. Turing | Prediction: Target Price | Base Date: 2/18/2010 |
| Raw Least Squares Trend | Target Date: 5/17/2010 | |
| Base Price: $5.69 | Target Price: $5.40 |
| Prediction #10 for MSO | ||
| Analyst: C.D. Turing | Prediction: Target Price | Base Date: 2/18/2010 |
| Deseasonalized Least Squares Trend | Target Date: 5/17/2010 | |
| Base Price: $5.69 | Target Price: $5.40 |
| Prediction #11 for MSO | ||
| Analyst: C.D. Turing | Prediction: Target Price | Base Date: 2/18/2010 |
| Deseasonalized 5 Year Linear Trend | Target Date: 5/17/2010 | |
| Base Price: $5.69 | Target Price: $4.39 |
| Prediction #12 for MSO | ||
| Analyst: C.D. Turing | Prediction: Target Price | Base Date: 2/18/2010 |
| Full History Least Squares Trend with Seasonal Adjustment | Target Date: 5/17/2010 | |
| Base Price: $5.69 | Target Price: $5.45 |
| Prediction #13 for MSO | ||
| Analyst: C.D. Turing | Prediction: Target Price | Base Date: 2/18/2010 |
| 5 Year Linear Trend with Seasonal Adjustment | Target Date: 5/17/2010 | |
| Base Price: $5.69 | Target Price: $4.43 |
| Note: Predictions on this page are from several sources, so they will not always be in agreement. The member area contains a detailed evaluation which rates the reliability of each prediction source against the historical record, and gives a final composite prediction which is weighted according to the success of the individual contributions. |
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Trend reversals at various price levels form the color scheme for the background of this chart. As prices cross levels with diferent characteristics, the rate of the price movement will be changed or even reversed. For more details of these maps, see Support and Resistance. |
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Price Behavior Surfaces are a way to visualize the forces that act upon the price through time. The illustration above shows the surface for Martha Stewart from two different angles.These surfaces illustrate the imbalance between competing forces of fear and greed and the effect that they exert on the direction of the price line. For more about these surfaces, click here. |
For Subscribers: Refined Predictions for Martha StewartRefined Stock Price Predictions for MSO : |
| Thursday, March 04, 2010: We have news on Ashland Inc., ticker symbol ASH. Signs of an over-bought condition have become noticable. Also, there are breaking events concerning Micron Technology, Inc. and Abercrombie & Fitch Co.. From the News Archive: (3/3/2010 ) Favorable events happened at Devon Energy Corporation and Vornado Realty Trust. Meanwhile, bad news came from Novell, Inc. and Akamai Technologies, Inc.. |