Chapter XVI: Predictions and Forecasts. What will happen to MER over the next few months? |
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Some recent Technical Signals and Predictions from several entities are combined on this illustration to show how they relate to each other on a scale with recent prices. On the left, the vertical red and green bars show technical signals. The impact of these signals is typically short-term. Conventional target prices are the short red horizontal bars on the extreme right. The green shaded ovals depict probability densities of response surface projections. These are designed so that there is a 95 percent confidence that the price will touch the light green area and a 67 percent confidence that the priceline will touch the inner dark green region. Horizontal lower boundaries of conventional forecasts (floor prices) are green, and orange horizontal bars show ceiling prices. If the path to a target price crosses against a floor or ceiling, the resistance may prevent the target from being reached. |
Merrill Lynch - Recent Technical SignalsA recent interesting signal was the SMA5Over20Divergence seen on Friday, December 31, 2010.
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This plot shows the actual results of last quarter's XML source forecasts. The green oval shapes represent the proprietary Indicator Response Surface projections from Hybrid Technical. Any report that is not accurate within the 95 percent confidence limit (outer light green shading) will be refunded in full. Full Access Subscribers receive double their money back. (* This offer is subject to restrictions outlined in the member agreement.) |
| Prediction #1 for MER | ||
| Analyst: D.B. Veblen | Prediction: Support Price | Base Date: 1/18/2011 |
| Nearest Volumetric Price Floor | Target Date: 4/16/2011 | |
| Base Price: $22.55 | Target Price: $22.00 |
| Prediction #2 for MER | ||
| Analyst: D.B. Veblen | Prediction: Support Price | Base Date: 1/18/2011 |
| Volumetric Mean As Floor | Target Date: 4/16/2011 | |
| Base Price: $22.55 | Target Price: $16.36 |
| Prediction #3 for MER | ||
| Analyst: R.S. Adams | Prediction: Target Price | Base Date: 1/18/2011 |
| Phase200 Response90 | Target Date: 4/16/2011 | |
| Base Price: $22.55 | Target Price: $23.35 |
| Prediction #4 for MER | ||
| Analyst: E.S. Chase | Prediction: Target Price | Base Date: 1/18/2011 |
| Monthly QuarterTerm Potential Appreciation | Target Date: 4/16/2011 | |
| Base Price: $22.55 | Target Price: $25.20 |
| Prediction #5 for MER | ||
| Analyst: S.A. Chi | Prediction: Ceiling Price | Base Date: 1/18/2011 |
| Upper limit of typical Volatility | Target Date: 4/16/2011 | |
| Base Price: $22.55 | Target Price: $26.64 |
| Prediction #6 for MER | ||
| Analyst: S.A. Chi | Prediction: Support Price | Base Date: 1/18/2011 |
| Lower limit of typical Volatility | Target Date: 4/16/2011 | |
| Base Price: $22.55 | Target Price: $18.96 |
| Prediction #7 for MER | ||
| Analyst: C.D. Turing | Prediction: Target Price | Base Date: 1/18/2011 |
| Raw Least Squares Trend | Target Date: 4/16/2011 | |
| Base Price: $22.55 | Target Price: $22.78 |
| Prediction #8 for MER | ||
| Analyst: C.D. Turing | Prediction: Target Price | Base Date: 1/18/2011 |
| Deseasonalized Least Squares Trend | Target Date: 4/16/2011 | |
| Base Price: $22.55 | Target Price: $22.75 |
| Prediction #9 for MER | ||
| Analyst: C.D. Turing | Prediction: Target Price | Base Date: 1/18/2011 |
| Full History Least Squares Trend with Seasonal Adjustment | Target Date: 4/16/2011 | |
| Base Price: $22.55 | Target Price: $21.70 |
| Note: Predictions may conflict with one another because they from several sources. The next page rates the reliability of each prediction source against the historical record, and gives a final composite prediction which is weighted according to the previous success of predictions from the individual analyst. |
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Trend reversals at various price levels form the color scheme for the background of this chart. As prices cross levels with diferent characteristics, the rate of the price movement will be changed or even reversed. For more details of these maps, see Support and Resistance. |
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Price Behavior Surfaces are a way to visualize the forces that act upon the price through time. The illustration above shows the surface for Merrill Lynch from two different angles.These surfaces illustrate the imbalance between competing forces of fear and greed and the effect that they exert on the direction of the price line. For more about these surfaces, click here. |
For Subscribers: Refined Predictions for Merrill LynchRefined Stock Price Predictions for MER : |
| Friday, February 18, 2011: We have news on Fiserv, Inc., ticker symbol FISV. Signs of an over-bought condition have become noticable. Also, there are breaking events concerning Zimmer Holdings, Inc. and McCormick & Company, Incorporated. From the News Archive: (2/18/2011 ) Bad news came from Reynolds American, Inc., Dollar Tree, Inc., Zimmer Holdings, Inc., and NVIDIA Corp. |