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Independent Price Predictions for International Business Machines

Chapter XVI: Forecasts are gathered from several sources to predict future price movements.

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IBM:  Profitability during each Month

The chart represents recent technical signals and forecasts from various XML sources in relation to recent price history.

On the left, the vertical red and green bars show technical signals. The impact of these signals is typically short-term. Conventional target prices are the short red horizontal bars on the extreme right. The green shaded ovals depict probability densities of response surface projections. These are designed so that there is a 95 percent confidence that the price will touch the light green area and a 67 percent confidence that the priceline will touch the inner dark green region. Horizontal lower boundaries of conventional forecasts (floor prices) are green, and orange horizontal bars show ceiling prices. If the path to a target price crosses against a floor or ceiling, the resistance may prevent the target from being reached.





Some Recent Technical Signals from IBM

A recent interesting signal was the Wilder30RSI70or30 seen on Tuesday, February 15, 2011.
DateIndicatorBuy or SellWeeklyMonthly
2/15/2011Wilder30RSI70or30S-55.00 %-21.00 %
2/7/2011Wilder30RSI70or30S-55.00 %-21.00 %
2/2/2011Wilder30RSI70or30S-55.00 %-21.00 %
1/31/2011Wilder30RSI70or30S-55.00 %-21.00 %
1/24/2011CalibratedWilderRSIS-23.00 %-11.00 %
1/24/2011WilderRSI80or20S-73.00 %-20.00 %
1/24/2011Wilder30RSI70or30S-55.00 %-21.00 %
1/19/2011Wilder7RSI80or20S-12.00 %-7.00 %
1/19/2011CalibratedWilderRSIBiWeeklyModalS-39.00 %-15.00 %
12/28/2010BiWeeklySawTooth70or30S-26.00 %-9.00 %
12/8/2010SMA5Over20DivergenceS-8.00 %-5.00 %
11/30/2010BiWeeklySawTooth70or30S-26.00 %-9.00 %
11/30/2010SMA5Over20DivergenceB15.00 %6.00 %
11/24/2010SMA5Over20DivergenceS-8.00 %-5.00 %
11/23/2010SMA5Over20DivergenceB15.00 %6.00 %



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Last Quarter Forecast Accuracy of International Business Machines

The last quarter's forecasts from XML prediction sources are shown in relation to the prices that actually occurred.

The green oval shapes represent the proprietary Indicator Response Surface projections from Hybrid Technical. Any report that is not accurate within the 95 percent confidence limit (outer light green shading) will be refunded in full. Full Access Subscribers receive double their money back. (* This offer is subject to restrictions outlined in the member agreement.)




Prediction #1 for IBM
Analyst: D.B. VeblenPrediction: Support PriceBase Date: 2/22/2011
Nearest Volumetric Price FloorTarget Date: 5/21/2011
Base Price: $161.95Target Price: $162.00
Prediction #2 for IBM
Analyst: D.B. VeblenPrediction: Support PriceBase Date: 2/22/2011
Volumetric Mean As FloorTarget Date: 5/21/2011
Base Price: $161.95Target Price: $49.78
Prediction #3 for IBM
Analyst: R.S.A. Smith Prediction: Target PriceBase Date: 2/22/2011
NVI Response90Target Date: 5/21/2011
Base Price: $161.95Target Price: $167.46
Prediction #4 for IBM
Analyst: R.S. Adams Prediction: Target PriceBase Date: 2/22/2011
Phase200 Response90Target Date: 5/21/2011
Base Price: $161.95Target Price: $166.99
Prediction #5 for IBM
Analyst: E.S. ChasePrediction: Target PriceBase Date: 2/22/2011
Monthly QuarterTerm Potential AppreciationTarget Date: 5/21/2011
Base Price: $161.95Target Price: $177.87
Prediction #6 for IBM
Analyst: T. PearsonPrediction: Target PriceBase Date: 2/22/2011
Political Calendar Monthly QuarterTerm Potential AppreciationTarget Date: 5/21/2011
Base Price: $161.95Target Price: $162.71
Prediction #7 for IBM
Analyst: C.D. Turing Prediction: Target PriceBase Date: 2/22/2011
Raw Least Squares TrendTarget Date: 5/21/2011
Base Price: $161.95Target Price: $165.81
Prediction #8 for IBM
Analyst: C.D. Turing Prediction: Target PriceBase Date: 2/22/2011
Deseasonalized Least Squares TrendTarget Date: 5/21/2011
Base Price: $161.95Target Price: $165.81
Prediction #9 for IBM
Analyst: C.D. Turing Prediction: Target PriceBase Date: 2/22/2011
Deseasonalized 5 Year Linear TrendTarget Date: 5/21/2011
Base Price: $161.95Target Price: $167.78
Prediction #10 for IBM
Analyst: C.D. Turing Prediction: Target PriceBase Date: 2/22/2011
Full History Least Squares Trend with Seasonal AdjustmentTarget Date: 5/21/2011
Base Price: $161.95Target Price: $163.77
Prediction #11 for IBM
Analyst: C.D. Turing Prediction: Target PriceBase Date: 2/22/2011
5 Year Linear Trend with Seasonal AdjustmentTarget Date: 5/21/2011
Base Price: $161.95Target Price: $165.72


Note: Predictions may conflict with one another because they from several sources. The next page rates the reliability of each prediction source against the historical record, and gives a final composite prediction which is weighted according to the previous success of predictions from the individual analyst.






Trend Reversal Levels

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 Daily Support and Resistance of International Business Machines


Trend reversals at various price levels form the color scheme for the background of this chart. As prices cross levels with diferent characteristics, the rate of the price movement will be changed or even reversed. For more details of these maps, see Support and Resistance.



Price Behavior Surfaces are a way to visualize the forces that act upon the price through time. The illustration above shows the surface for International Business Machines from two different angles.These surfaces illustrate the imbalance between competing forces of fear and greed and the effect that they exert on the direction of the price line.

For more about these surfaces, click here.


For Subscribers: Refined Predictions for International Business Machines

Refined Stock Price Predictions for IBM :


Companies in the News:

Friday, February 18, 2011: We have news on Fiserv, Inc., ticker symbol FISV. Signs of an over-bought condition have become noticable. Also, there are breaking events concerning Zimmer Holdings, Inc. and McCormick & Company, Incorporated.

From the News Archive: (2/18/2011 ) Bad news came from Reynolds American, Inc., Dollar Tree, Inc., Zimmer Holdings, Inc., and NVIDIA Corp.


More IBM Technical Analysis Topics

Support and Resistance Levels

Politics and Prices of IBM

Japanese Candlestick Analysis

IBM Classical Analysis of Time Series

IBM Historical Volume

IBM Risk-Volatility Analysis

IBM Seasonal Trends

Back to IBM Table of Contents


Information on public pages is delayed. Associates of Hybrid Technical may hold positions in issues covered here. These reports are not to be used for stock-picking or investment decision support. Any such use is strictly prohibited.



Notice: Pages available to the public on this site are for entertainment and academic purposes only. We do not advocate investment in common stock. We do not recommend the purchase or sale of this or any other issue. Research shows that most people who invest in common stock will lose money. Charts and concepts are property of Hybrid Technical. All Rights Reserved. All Content is Copyright 2010 by Hybrid Technical

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