Chapter X: The mood of the market toward International Paper show up in the Daily Closing Altitude and other Sentiment Indicators. |
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| For International Paper, the Negative Volume Index is a well known indicator for market sentiment. This version is includes several enhancements suggested by Norman Fosback. The plot is the proportion of the daily NVI as compared to the past year's average daily NVI. The plot is orange below the unity line (neutral implication) and green above (bullish). |
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How to read the Calibrated NVI for International Paper: The NVI is an elegant indicator based on sound principles but it should not be interpreted in a simplistic manner. The orange plot (NVI less than unity) is not considered bearish because a lowering of the NVI is a natural tendancy under many market conditions. When the plot is in the green area, it indicates that prices are rising on low volume sessions, which is contrary to the normal condition. This can be a tip off to "accumulation behaviour" on the part of someone or some group in the market. The indicator seems most significant when prices are falling and the NVI is rising, which indicates a market that is "buying on the dips". |
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| Because the NVI operates over a somewhat longer time frame than most technical indicators, it is of interest to track it over a longer period to get a feeling for how it works. This chart for International Paper covers the few years before the start of the chart at the top of the page. |
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| The historical Closing Altitude is traced by the blue line above. For the trading week ending 3/5/2010, the weekly average closing altitude was 60.58 percent. 50 percent closing altitude is marked as the midline. It indicates closing prices halfway between the high and low prices for the day. Values above the midline indicate that day traders have positive feelings toward IP while traces below the midline are a sign that speculators are afraid to hold on to the issue overnight. The short-term trend is positive, with a slope of 36.68. International Paper stock prices are shown in red. |
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| The Volume Portion is low for the latest data at 0.54. Here the blue indicates the proportion between Up Volume and Down Volume. Again, the horizontal blue line represents the neutral point. International Paper share prices are overlaid in red. This is an important indicator for market timing, as a change in direction of the volume line may happen before the price turns.Short term, the slope of this indicator is negative at -0.08. |
Influence of Investor Sentiment on IP stock prices. Also, roadmap and Summary of most effective indicators: |
| Thursday, March 18, 2010: We have news on MicroSoft, ticker symbol MSFT. Signs of an over-bought condition have become noticable. Also, there are breaking events concerning Mylan Inc. and Goldman Sachs Group, Inc.. From the News Archive: (3/17/2010 ) Favorable events happened at LoJack Corp and Martha Stewart. Meanwhile, bad news came from Patterson Companies, Inc. and LSI Corporation. |