Chapter X: The mood of the market toward Walt Disney show up in the Daily Closing Altitude and other Sentiment Indicators. |
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| For Walt Disney, the Negative Volume Index is a well known indicator for market sentiment. This modern version makes use of several enhancements suggested by Norman Fosback. The plot is the proportion of the daily NVI as compared to the past year's average daily NVI. The plot is orange below the unity line (neutral implication) and green above (bullish). |
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Interpreting the Calibrated NVI for Walt Disney: In its modern form, the NVI is an elegant indicator, but requires some care in interpretation. The orange plot (NVI less than unity) is not considered bearish because a lowering of the NVI is a natural tendancy under many market conditions. When the plot is in the green area, it indicates that prices are rising on low volume sessions, which is contrary to the normal condition. This can be a tip off to "accumulation behaviour" on the part of someone or some group in the market. The indicator seems most significant when prices are falling and the NVI is rising, which indicates a market that is "buying on the dips". |
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| The NVI resembles a fundamental indicator more than a technical indicator in at least one respect, as it seems to be indicative over a span of months or quarters, rather then the extremely short predictive span typical of many technical signals. This chart for Walt Disney covers the few years before the start of the chart at the top of the page. |
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| For the trading week ending 2/19/2010, the weekly average closing altitude was 61.45 percent. The historical Closing Altitude is traced by the blue line in the chart above. 50 percent closing altitude is marked as the midline. If the closing prices happened to be exactly halfway between the high and low, they would be plotted on this midline. Values above the midline indicate that day traders have positive feelings toward DIS while traces below the midline are a sign that speculators are afraid to hold on to the issue overnight. The latest data indicates a downward trend, with a slope of -17.18. Walt Disney stock prices are shown in red. |
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| The Volume Portion is low for the latest data at 0.37. Here the blue indicates the proportion between Up Volume and Down Volume. Again, the horizontal blue line represents the neutral point. Walt Disney share prices are overlaid in red. This is an important indicator for market timing, as a change in direction of the volume line may happen before the price turns.Short term, the slope of this indicator is negative at -0.31. |
Influence of Investor Sentiment on DIS stock prices. Also, roadmap and Summary of most effective indicators: |
| Friday, March 12, 2010: We have news on ConAgra Foods, Inc., ticker symbol CAG. Signs of an over-bought condition have become noticable. Also, there are breaking events concerning Convergys Corporation and Coach, Inc.. From the News Archive: (3/11/2010 ) A favorable event happened at Zimmer Holdings, Inc.. Meanwhile, bad news came from Fluor Corporation (NEW), Automatic Data Processing, and Home Depot. |