Part1: An Overview of the Analysis
Chapter I:
An introductory chapter looks at the price history of TRV by applying Classical Time Series Analysis. Some of the patterns seen here will prove to be important in further analysis. See TRV Classical Analysis.
Chapter II:
This survey looks at historical volatility of The Travelers Companies, Inc. prices. The risks associated with long and short term positions can be evaluated according to projected shapes of the Volatility Curve. See The Travelers Companies, Inc. Price Volatility.
Chapter III:
Historical Volume Trends are analyzed here, revealing seasonal patterns and the influence of the Business Cycle. See TRV Historical Volume.
Chapter IV:
The Traditional Seasonal Analysis of Price Trends can still yield valuable predictive information. See TRV Seasonal Trends.
Chapter V:
One of the most popular indicators, the Moving Average, comes in many variations. Here we test the predictive ability of different averages as applied to prediction of The Travelers Companies, Inc. prices. See Running Averages.
Part 2: Technical Analysis Topics
Chapter VI:
Technical Oscillators are compared to test their power as buy or sell signals for speculating in TRV stock. We conduct an extensive investigation of the popular "RSI" of Welles Wilder and some of its variations. See Technical Oscillators
Chapter VII:
This chapter takes a view somewhat similar to standard analysis of seasonal trends, but it is based on the 4 year or 2 year Political Calendar rather than the 1 year Standard Calendar. Political Seasons work better than Calendar Seasons for predicting prices of many companies. See Politics and Prices of TRV.
Chapter VIII:
Volume Stratification Analysis (or VSA) follows price behavior in relation to historical volumes of TRV stock sales. Knowledge of these behaviors gives us a quantitative metric useful for understanding Support or Resistance Levels, and predicting their strength. See Volumetric Analysis
Chapter IX:
Analysis of Market Momentum as the product of Price and Volume drives an interpretation considerably more sophisticated than those that consider Price Momentum alone. See Momentum Investing Indicators.
Chapter X:
The mood of the market toward The Travelers Companies, Inc. show up in the Daily Closing Altitude and other Sentiment Indicators. See Market Sentiment.
Chapter XI:
This section visualizes mappings based on the number of consecutive price movements in a particular direction. A discussion of the "Monte Carlo Fallacy" and it's relevance to Stock Price Prediction leads to a revisionist method of Price Projection using the Bernoulli Analysis. See Bernoulli Analysis of The Travelers Companies, Inc.
Chapter XII:
The traditional techniques of Candlestick Analysis may seem fanciful, but certain aspects are firmly grounded in the science of Investor Psychology. See Candlestick Analysis.
Chapter XIII:
Ordinary analysis does not show the features of the behavioral history underneath the price volume line. Here multi-spectral analysis brings the hidden features to the surface. See Multi-Spectral Analysis.
Chapter XIV:
The combination of multi-spectral and mult-dimensional analysis of The Travelers Companies, Inc. historical trends, yields a rich set of behavioral surfaces. See Price Behavior Surfaces.
Part 3: Synthesis and Projections for the Future
Chapter XVI:
Forecasts are gathered from several sources to predict future price movements. See TRV Price Predictions.
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