Part1: An Independent View of the Analysis
Chapter I:
An introductory chapter looks at the price history of MSFT by applying Classical Time Series Analysis. Some of the patterns seen here will prove to be important in further analysis. See MSFT Classical Analysis.
Chapter II:
This survey looks at historical volatility of MicroSoft prices. The risks associated with long and short term positions can be evaluated according to projected shapes of the Volatility Curve. See MicroSoft Price Volatility.
Chapter III:
This section shows historical volumes for sales of MSFT stock, along with Seasonal and Cyclical Trends in Volume. See MSFT Historical Volume.
Chapter IV:
A look at Traditional Seasonal Analysis of MicroSoft Historical Prices identifies the best and worst months to be invested. See MSFT Seasonal Trends.
Chapter V:
One of the most popular indicators, the Moving Average, comes in many variations. Here we test the predictive ability of different averages as applied to prediction of MicroSoft prices. See Running Averages.
Part 2: Technical Analysis Topics
Chapter VI:
Some say that modern analysis began with the successful identification of technical oscillators such as the highly effective Wilder RSI. See Technical Oscillators
Chapter VII:
A different type of Seasonal Analysis is applied to MSFT historical prices. Here the 24 month, November based Political Calendar is the basis for non-standard Seasonal Analysis. See Politics and Prices of MSFT.
Chapter VIII:
Volume Stratification Analysis (or VSA) follows price behavior in relation to historical volumes of MSFT stock sales. Knowledge of these behaviors gives us a quantitative metric useful for understanding Support or Resistance Levels, and predicting their strength. See Volumetric Analysis
Chapter IX:
Analysis of Market Momentum as the product of Price and Volume drives an interpretation considerably more sophisticated than those that consider Price Momentum alone. See Momentum Investing Indicators.
Chapter X:
Technical Analysis discovers the range of moods of investors toward MSFT. See Market Sentiment.
Chapter XI:
The length of "Runs", (the number of consecutive price movements up or down) reveal some new ways to visualize Price Series Data. A discussion of the "Monte Carlo Fallacy" and it's relevance to Stock Price Prediction leads to a revisionist method of Price Projection using the Bernoulli Analysis. See Bernoulli Analysis of MicroSoft
Chapter XII:
The traditional techniques of Candlestick Analysis may seem fanciful, but certain aspects are firmly grounded in the science of Investor Psychology. See Candlestick Analysis.
Chapter XIII:
Multi-spectral analysis reveals behavioral features of MSFT prices that may not be apparent to ordinary analysis. See Multi-Spectral Analysis.
Chapter XIV:
The combination of multi-spectral and mult-dimensional analysis of MicroSoft historical trends, yields a rich set of behavioral surfaces. See Price Behavior Surfaces.
Part 3: Synthesis and Projections for the Future
Chapter XVI:
Predictions and Forecasts. What will happen to MSFT over the next few months? See MSFT Price Predictions.
|