Part1: Survey of the Analysis Materials
Chapter I:
This look at Merck begins with a Classical Time Series Analysis of the historical stock prices, providing a vantage point over patterns that will be explored in greater detail in the following chapters. See MRK Classical Analysis.
Chapter II:
This survey looks at historical volatility of Merck prices. The risks associated with long and short term positions can be evaluated according to projected shapes of the Volatility Curve. See Merck Price Volatility.
Chapter III:
Changes in Daily Volume are tracked in time here. Time Series Analysis demonstrates Trends and Cyclical Patterns in the number of shares transacted. See MRK Historical Volume.
Chapter IV:
A look at Traditional Seasonal Analysis of Merck Historical Prices identifies the best and worst months to be invested. See MRK Seasonal Trends.
Chapter V:
Moving Averages of various flavours are popular indicators. Here we test the predictive ability of different averages as applied to prediction of Merck prices. See Running Averages.
Part 2: Technical Analysis Topics
Chapter VI:
Some say that modern analysis began with the successful identification of technical oscillators such as the highly effective Wilder RSI. See Technical Oscillators
Chapter VII:
Price Analysis according to Political Factors reveals some surprising results. Computing trends against the November based political calendar may give better predictions than the traditional calculations based on the January calendar year! See Politics and Prices of MRK.
Chapter VIII:
A sophisticated method associates price levels with historical volumes. Such semi-abstract concepts as Support and Resistance may then be defined with mathematical precision. See Volumetric Analysis
Chapter IX:
A view of Momentum Analysis that takes Volume into account as well as Price. See Momentum Investing Indicators.
Chapter X:
Technical Analysis discovers the range of moods of investors toward MRK. See Market Sentiment.
Chapter XI:
This section visualizes mappings based on the number of consecutive price movements in a particular direction. A discussion of the "Monte Carlo Fallacy" and it's relevance to Stock Price Prediction leads to a revisionist method of Price Projection using the Bernoulli Analysis. See Bernoulli Analysis of Merck
Chapter XII:
Japanese Candlesticks have a long history, but continue to be used because some of their best concepts are based on universal Investor Psychology. See Candlestick Analysis.
Chapter XIII:
Ordinary analysis does not show the features of the behavioral history underneath the price volume line. Here multi-spectral analysis brings the hidden features to the surface. See Multi-Spectral Analysis.
Chapter XIV:
The combination of multi-spectral and mult-dimensional analysis of Merck historical trends, yields a rich set of behavioral surfaces. See Price Behavior Surfaces.
Part 3: Synthesis and Projections for the Future
Chapter XVI:
Forecasts are gathered from several sources to predict future price movements. See MRK Price Predictions.
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