Part1: An Independent View of the Analysis
Chapter I:
An introductory chapter looks at the price history of MO by applying Classical Time Series Analysis. Some of the patterns seen here will prove to be important in further analysis. See MO Classical Analysis.
Chapter II:
Understanding Price Volatility behaviour is essential to assessing the risk associated with positions across different time spans. See Philip Morris Price Volatility.
Chapter III:
Historical Volume Trends are analyzed here, revealing seasonal patterns and the influence of the Business Cycle. See MO Historical Volume.
Chapter IV:
The Traditional Seasonal Analysis of Price Trends can still yield valuable predictive information. See MO Seasonal Trends.
Chapter V:
Moving Averages of various flavours are popular indicators. Here we test the predictive ability of different averages as applied to prediction of Philip Morris prices. See Running Averages.
Part 2: Analysis
Chapter VI:
Technical Oscillators are compared to test their power as buy or sell signals for speculating in MO stock. We conduct an extensive investigation of the popular "RSI" of Welles Wilder and some of its variations. See Technical Oscillators
Chapter VII:
This chapter takes a view somewhat similar to standard analysis of seasonal trends, but it is based on the 4 year or 2 year Political Calendar rather than the 1 year Standard Calendar. Political Seasons work better than Calendar Seasons for predicting prices of many companies. See Politics and Prices of MO.
Chapter VIII:
A sophisticated method associates price levels with historical volumes. Such semi-abstract concepts as Support and Resistance may then be defined with mathematical precision. See Volumetric Analysis
Chapter IX:
Analysis of Market Momentum as the product of Price and Volume drives an interpretation considerably more sophisticated than those that consider Price Momentum alone. See Momentum Investing Indicators.
Chapter X:
The mood of the market toward Philip Morris show up in the Daily Closing Altitude and other Sentiment Indicators. See Market Sentiment.
Chapter XI:
The length of "Runs", (the number of consecutive price movements up or down) reveal some new ways to visualize Price Series Data. A discussion of the "Monte Carlo Fallacy" and it's relevance to Stock Price Prediction leads to a revisionist method of Price Projection using the Bernoulli Analysis. See Bernoulli Analysis of Philip Morris
Chapter XII:
Japanese Candlesticks have a long history, but continue to be used because some of their best concepts are based on universal Investor Psychology. See Candlestick Analysis.
Chapter XIII:
Multi-spectral analysis reveals behavioral features of MO prices that may not be apparent to ordinary analysis. See Multi-Spectral Analysis.
Chapter XIV:
Combining the historical behavior surfaces with the geometry of long standing periodic price oscillations yields a behavior surface of more than three dimensions which has an extremely low residual error compared to other methods of analysis. See Price Behavior Surfaces.
Part 3: Synthesis and Projections for the Future
Chapter XVI:
Predictions and Forecasts. What will happen to MO over the next few months? See MO Price Predictions.
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