Part1: An Overview of the Analysis
Chapter I:
This look at KB Home begins with a Classical Time Series Analysis of the historical stock prices, providing a vantage point over patterns that will be explored in greater detail in the following chapters. See KBH Classical Analysis.
Chapter II:
Risks associated with short and long period price changes can be understood through Volatility Analysis. Here the impact of the Volatility Curve on the potential profitability positions across different time spans is shown. See KB Home Price Volatility.
Chapter III:
Historical Volume Trends are analyzed here, revealing seasonal patterns and the influence of the Business Cycle. See KBH Historical Volume.
Chapter IV:
The Traditional Seasonal Analysis of Price Trends can still yield valuable predictive information. See KBH Seasonal Trends.
Chapter V:
One of the most popular indicators, the Moving Average, comes in many variations. Here we test the predictive ability of different averages as applied to prediction of KB Home prices. See Running Averages.
Part 2: Traditional Analysis Topics
Chapter VI:
Some say that modern analysis began with the successful identification of technical oscillators such as the highly effective Wilder RSI. See Technical Oscillators
Chapter VII:
This chapter takes a view somewhat similar to standard analysis of seasonal trends, but it is based on the 4 year or 2 year Political Calendar rather than the 1 year Standard Calendar. Political Seasons work better than Calendar Seasons for predicting prices of many companies. See Politics and Prices of KBH.
Chapter VIII:
A sophisticated method associates price levels with historical volumes. Such semi-abstract concepts as Support and Resistance may then be defined with mathematical precision. See Volumetric Analysis
Chapter IX:
Analysis of Market Momentum as the product of Price and Volume drives an interpretation considerably more sophisticated than those that consider Price Momentum alone. See Momentum Investing Indicators.
Chapter X:
Technical Analysis discovers the range of moods of investors toward KBH. See Market Sentiment.
Chapter XI:
The length of "Runs", (the number of consecutive price movements up or down) reveal some new ways to visualize Price Series Data. A discussion of the "Monte Carlo Fallacy" and it's relevance to Stock Price Prediction leads to a revisionist method of Price Projection using the Bernoulli Analysis. See Bernoulli Analysis of KB Home
Chapter XII:
The traditional techniques of Candlestick Analysis may seem fanciful, but certain aspects are firmly grounded in the science of Investor Psychology. See Candlestick Analysis.
Chapter XIII:
Multi-spectral analysis reveals behavioral features of KBH prices that may not be apparent to ordinary analysis. See Multi-Spectral Analysis.
Chapter XIV:
The combination of multi-spectral and mult-dimensional analysis of KB Home historical trends, yields a rich set of behavioral surfaces. See Price Behavior Surfaces.
Part 3: Synthesis and Projections for the Future
Chapter XVI:
Predictions and Forecasts. What will happen to KBH over the next few months? See KBH Price Predictions.
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