Part1: An Overview of the Analysis
Chapter I:
An introductory chapter looks at the price history of JNY by applying Classical Time Series Analysis. Some of the patterns seen here will prove to be important in further analysis. See JNY Classical Analysis.
Chapter II:
Risks associated with short and long period price changes can be understood through Volatility Analysis. Here the impact of the Volatility Curve on the potential profitability positions across different time spans is shown. See Jones Apparel Group, Inc. Price Volatility.
Chapter III:
Historical Volume Trends are analyzed here, revealing seasonal patterns and the influence of the Business Cycle. See JNY Historical Volume.
Chapter IV:
The Traditional Seasonal Analysis of Price Trends can still yield valuable predictive information. See JNY Seasonal Trends.
Chapter V:
One of the most popular indicators, the Moving Average, comes in many variations. Here we test the predictive ability of different averages as applied to prediction of Jones Apparel Group, Inc. prices. See Running Averages.
Part 2: Traditional Analysis Topics
Chapter VI:
Technical Oscillators are compared to test their power as buy or sell signals for speculating in JNY stock. We conduct an extensive investigation of the popular "RSI" of Welles Wilder and some of its variations. See Technical Oscillators
Chapter VII:
Price Analysis according to Political Factors reveals some surprising results. Computing trends against the November based political calendar may give better predictions than the traditional calculations based on the January calendar year! See Politics and Prices of JNY.
Chapter VIII:
A sophisticated method associates price levels with historical volumes. Such semi-abstract concepts as Support and Resistance may then be defined with mathematical precision. See Volumetric Analysis
Chapter IX:
A view of Momentum Analysis that takes Volume into account as well as Price. See Momentum Investing Indicators.
Chapter X:
Technical Analysis discovers the range of moods of investors toward JNY. See Market Sentiment.
Chapter XI:
This section visualizes mappings based on the number of consecutive price movements in a particular direction. A discussion of the "Monte Carlo Fallacy" and it's relevance to Stock Price Prediction leads to a revisionist method of Price Projection using the Bernoulli Analysis. See Bernoulli Analysis of Jones Apparel Group, Inc.
Chapter XII:
Japanese Candlesticks have a long history, but continue to be used because some of their best concepts are based on universal Investor Psychology. See Candlestick Analysis.
Chapter XIII:
Multi-spectral analysis reveals behavioral features of JNY prices that may not be apparent to ordinary analysis. See Multi-Spectral Analysis.
Chapter XIV:
The combination of multi-spectral and mult-dimensional analysis of Jones Apparel Group, Inc. historical trends, yields a rich set of behavioral surfaces. See Price Behavior Surfaces.
Part 3: Synthesis and Projections for the Future
Chapter XVI:
Forecasts are gathered from several sources to predict future price movements. See JNY Price Predictions.
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