Part1: An Overview of the Analysis
Chapter I:
An introductory chapter looks at the price history of IBM by applying Classical Time Series Analysis. Some of the patterns seen here will prove to be important in further analysis. See IBM Classical Analysis.
Chapter II:
Risks associated with short and long period price changes can be understood through Volatility Analysis. Here the impact of the Volatility Curve on the potential profitability positions across different time spans is shown. See International Business Machines Price Volatility.
Chapter III:
Historical Volume Trends are analyzed here, revealing seasonal patterns and the influence of the Business Cycle. See IBM Historical Volume.
Chapter IV:
The Traditional Seasonal Analysis of Price Trends can still yield valuable predictive information. See IBM Seasonal Trends.
Chapter V:
Moving Averages of various flavours are popular indicators. Here we test the predictive ability of different averages as applied to prediction of International Business Machines prices. See Running Averages.
Part 2: Traditional Analysis Topics
Chapter VI:
Technical Oscillators are compared to test their power as buy or sell signals for speculating in IBM stock. We conduct an extensive investigation of the popular "RSI" of Welles Wilder and some of its variations. See Technical Oscillators
Chapter VII:
This chapter takes a view somewhat similar to standard analysis of seasonal trends, but it is based on the 4 year or 2 year Political Calendar rather than the 1 year Standard Calendar. Political Seasons work better than Calendar Seasons for predicting prices of many companies. See Politics and Prices of IBM.
Chapter VIII:
A sophisticated method associates price levels with historical volumes. Such semi-abstract concepts as Support and Resistance may then be defined with mathematical precision. See Volumetric Analysis
Chapter IX:
Analysis of Market Momentum as the product of Price and Volume drives an interpretation considerably more sophisticated than those that consider Price Momentum alone. See Momentum Investing Indicators.
Chapter X:
Technical Analysis discovers the range of moods of investors toward IBM. See Market Sentiment.
Chapter XI:
The chapter first converts the Price Line to several different mappings based on "Runs" or the number of consecutive price movements in a particular direction. A discussion of the "Monte Carlo Fallacy" and it's relevance to Stock Price Prediction leads to a revisionist method of Price Projection using the Bernoulli Analysis. See Bernoulli Analysis of International Business Machines
Chapter XII:
Japanese Candlesticks have a long history, but continue to be used because some of their best concepts are based on universal Investor Psychology. See Candlestick Analysis.
Chapter XIII:
Ordinary analysis does not show the features of the behavioral history underneath the price volume line. Here multi-spectral analysis brings the hidden features to the surface. See Multi-Spectral Analysis.
Chapter XIV:
The combination of multi-spectral and mult-dimensional analysis of International Business Machines historical trends, yields a rich set of behavioral surfaces. See Price Behavior Surfaces.
Part 3: Synthesis and Projections for the Future
Chapter XVI:
Forecasts are gathered from several sources to predict future price movements. See IBM Price Predictions.
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