Part1: An Independent View of the Analysis
Chapter I:
An introductory chapter looks at the price history of HOG by applying Classical Time Series Analysis. Some of the patterns seen here will prove to be important in further analysis. See HOG Classical Analysis.
Chapter II:
Understanding Price Volatility behaviour is essential to assessing the risk associated with positions across different time spans. See Harley-Davidson, Inc. Price Volatility.
Chapter III:
Historical Volume Trends are analyzed here, revealing seasonal patterns and the influence of the Business Cycle. See HOG Historical Volume.
Chapter IV:
A look at Traditional Seasonal Analysis of Harley-Davidson, Inc. Historical Prices identifies the best and worst months to be invested. See HOG Seasonal Trends.
Chapter V:
Moving Averages of various flavours are popular indicators. Here we test the predictive ability of different averages as applied to prediction of Harley-Davidson, Inc. prices. See Running Averages.
Part 2: Analysis
Chapter VI:
Technical Oscillators are compared to test their power as buy or sell signals for speculating in HOG stock. We conduct an extensive investigation of the popular "RSI" of Welles Wilder and some of its variations. See Technical Oscillators
Chapter VII:
This chapter takes a view somewhat similar to standard analysis of seasonal trends, but it is based on the 4 year or 2 year Political Calendar rather than the 1 year Standard Calendar. Political Seasons work better than Calendar Seasons for predicting prices of many companies. See Politics and Prices of HOG.
Chapter VIII:
Volume Stratification Analysis tracks the volumes associated with price levels over the entire history of a stock. The resulting analysis yields a framework for understanding the mechanism behind support and resistance levels, and a scientific basis for predicting price behaviors due to those levels. See Volumetric Analysis
Chapter IX:
A view of Momentum Analysis that takes Volume into account as well as Price. See Momentum Investing Indicators.
Chapter X:
Technical Analysis discovers the range of moods of investors toward HOG. See Market Sentiment.
Chapter XI:
The chapter first converts the Price Line to several different mappings based on "Runs" or the number of consecutive price movements in a particular direction. A discussion of the "Monte Carlo Fallacy" and it's relevance to Stock Price Prediction leads to a revisionist method of Price Projection using the Bernoulli Analysis. See Bernoulli Analysis of Harley-Davidson, Inc.
Chapter XII:
The traditional techniques of Candlestick Analysis may seem fanciful, but certain aspects are firmly grounded in the science of Investor Psychology. See Candlestick Analysis.
Chapter XIII:
Ordinary analysis does not show the features of the behavioral history underneath the price volume line. Here multi-spectral analysis brings the hidden features to the surface. See Multi-Spectral Analysis.
Chapter XIV:
Combining the historical behavior surfaces with the geometry of long standing periodic price oscillations yields a behavior surface of more than three dimensions which has an extremely low residual error compared to other methods of analysis. See Price Behavior Surfaces.
Part 3: Synthesis and Projections for the Future
Chapter XVI:
Predictions and Forecasts. What will happen to HOG over the next few months? See HOG Price Predictions.
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