Ctrip.com International, Ltd. Pure Technical Analysis
Part1: Survey of the Analysis Materials
An introductory chapter looks at the price history of CTRP by applying Classical Time Series Analysis. Some of the patterns seen here will prove to be important in further analysis. See CTRP Classical Analysis.
Understanding Price Volatility behaviour is essential to assessing the risk associated with positions across different time spans. See Ctrip.com International, Ltd. Price Volatility.
Changes in Daily Volume are tracked in time here. Time Series Analysis demonstrates Trends and Cyclical Patterns in the number of shares transacted. See CTRP Historical Volume.
A look at Traditional Seasonal Analysis of Ctrip.com International, Ltd. Historical Prices identifies the best and worst months to be invested. See CTRP Seasonal Trends.
Moving Averages of various flavours are popular indicators. Here we test the predictive ability of different averages as applied to prediction of Ctrip.com International, Ltd. prices. See Running Averages.
Part 2: Technical Analysis Topics
Some say that modern analysis began with the successful identification of technical oscillators such as the highly effective Wilder RSI. See Technical Oscillators
This chapter takes a view somewhat similar to standard analysis of seasonal trends, but it is based on the 4 year or 2 year Political Calendar rather than the 1 year Standard Calendar. Political Seasons work better than Calendar Seasons for predicting prices of many companies. See Politics and Prices of CTRP.
A sophisticated method associates price levels with historical volumes. Such semi-abstract concepts as Support and Resistance may then be defined with mathematical precision. See Volumetric Analysis
Analysis of Market Momentum as the product of Price and Volume drives an interpretation considerably more sophisticated than those that consider Price Momentum alone. See Momentum Investing Indicators.
The mood of the market toward Ctrip.com International, Ltd. show up in the Daily Closing Altitude and other Sentiment Indicators. See Market Sentiment.
This section visualizes mappings based on the number of consecutive price movements in a particular direction. A discussion of the "Monte Carlo Fallacy" and it's relevance to Stock Price Prediction leads to a revisionist method of Price Projection using the Bernoulli Analysis. See Bernoulli Analysis of Ctrip.com International, Ltd.
The traditional techniques of Candlestick Analysis may seem fanciful, but certain aspects are firmly grounded in the science of Investor Psychology. See Candlestick Analysis.
Ordinary analysis does not show the features of the behavioral history underneath the price volume line. Here multi-spectral analysis brings the hidden features to the surface. See Multi-Spectral Analysis.
Combining the historical behavior surfaces with the geometry of long standing periodic price oscillations yields a behavior surface of more than three dimensions which has an extremely low residual error compared to other methods of analysis. See Price Behavior Surfaces.
Part 3: Synthesis and Projections for the Future
Predictions and Forecasts. What will happen to CTRP over the next few months? See CTRP Price Predictions.