Part1: An Overview of the Analysis
Chapter I:
An introductory chapter looks at the price history of CPN by applying Classical Time Series Analysis. Some of the patterns seen here will prove to be important in further analysis. See CPN Classical Analysis.
Chapter II:
This survey looks at historical volatility of Calpine prices. The risks associated with long and short term positions can be evaluated according to projected shapes of the Volatility Curve. See Calpine Price Volatility.
Chapter III:
Changes in Daily Volume are tracked in time here. Time Series Analysis demonstrates Trends and Cyclical Patterns in the number of shares transacted. See CPN Historical Volume.
Chapter IV:
The Traditional Seasonal Analysis of Price Trends can still yield valuable predictive information. See CPN Seasonal Trends.
Chapter V:
One of the most popular indicators, the Moving Average, comes in many variations. Here we test the predictive ability of different averages as applied to prediction of Calpine prices. See Running Averages.
Part 2: Technical Analysis Topics
Chapter VI:
Some say that modern analysis began with the successful identification of technical oscillators such as the highly effective Wilder RSI. See Technical Oscillators
Chapter VII:
A different type of Seasonal Analysis is applied to CPN historical prices. Here the 24 month, November based Political Calendar is the basis for non-standard Seasonal Analysis. See Politics and Prices of CPN.
Chapter VIII:
Volume Stratification Analysis (or VSA) follows price behavior in relation to historical volumes of CPN stock sales. Knowledge of these behaviors gives us a quantitative metric useful for understanding Support or Resistance Levels, and predicting their strength. See Volumetric Analysis
Chapter IX:
A view of Momentum Analysis that takes Volume into account as well as Price. See Momentum Investing Indicators.
Chapter X:
The mood of the market toward Calpine show up in the Daily Closing Altitude and other Sentiment Indicators. See Market Sentiment.
Chapter XI:
The chapter first converts the Price Line to several different mappings based on "Runs" or the number of consecutive price movements in a particular direction. A discussion of the "Monte Carlo Fallacy" and it's relevance to Stock Price Prediction leads to a revisionist method of Price Projection using the Bernoulli Analysis. See Bernoulli Analysis of Calpine
Chapter XII:
Japanese Candlesticks have a long history, but continue to be used because some of their best concepts are based on universal Investor Psychology. See Candlestick Analysis.
Chapter XIII:
Multi-spectral analysis reveals behavioral features of CPN prices that may not be apparent to ordinary analysis. See Multi-Spectral Analysis.
Chapter XIV:
Combining the historical behavior surfaces with the geometry of long standing periodic price oscillations yields a behavior surface of more than three dimensions which has an extremely low residual error compared to other methods of analysis. See Price Behavior Surfaces.
Part 3: Synthesis and Projections for the Future
Chapter XVI:
Forecasts are gathered from several sources to predict future price movements. See CPN Price Predictions.
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