Part1: Survey of the Analysis Materials
Chapter I:
An introductory chapter looks at the price history of COST by applying Classical Time Series Analysis. Some of the patterns seen here will prove to be important in further analysis. See COST Classical Analysis.
Chapter II:
Risks associated with short and long period price changes can be understood through Volatility Analysis. Here the impact of the Volatility Curve on the potential profitability positions across different time spans is shown. See Costco Wholesale Corporation Price Volatility.
Chapter III:
This section shows historical volumes for sales of COST stock, along with Seasonal and Cyclical Trends in Volume. See COST Historical Volume.
Chapter IV:
A look at Traditional Seasonal Analysis of Costco Wholesale Corporation Historical Prices identifies the best and worst months to be invested. See COST Seasonal Trends.
Chapter V:
Moving Averages of various flavours are popular indicators. Here we test the predictive ability of different averages as applied to prediction of Costco Wholesale Corporation prices. See Running Averages.
Part 2: Traditional Analysis Topics
Chapter VI:
Technical Oscillators are compared to test their power as buy or sell signals for speculating in COST stock. We conduct an extensive investigation of the popular "RSI" of Welles Wilder and some of its variations. See Technical Oscillators
Chapter VII:
This chapter takes a view somewhat similar to standard analysis of seasonal trends, but it is based on the 4 year or 2 year Political Calendar rather than the 1 year Standard Calendar. Political Seasons work better than Calendar Seasons for predicting prices of many companies. See Politics and Prices of COST.
Chapter VIII:
Volume Stratification Analysis (or VSA) follows price behavior in relation to historical volumes of COST stock sales. Knowledge of these behaviors gives us a quantitative metric useful for understanding Support or Resistance Levels, and predicting their strength. See Volumetric Analysis
Chapter IX:
Analysis of Market Momentum as the product of Price and Volume drives an interpretation considerably more sophisticated than those that consider Price Momentum alone. See Momentum Investing Indicators.
Chapter X:
The mood of the market toward Costco Wholesale Corporation show up in the Daily Closing Altitude and other Sentiment Indicators. See Market Sentiment.
Chapter XI:
The length of "Runs", (the number of consecutive price movements up or down) reveal some new ways to visualize Price Series Data. A discussion of the "Monte Carlo Fallacy" and it's relevance to Stock Price Prediction leads to a revisionist method of Price Projection using the Bernoulli Analysis. See Bernoulli Analysis of Costco Wholesale Corporation
Chapter XII:
The traditional techniques of Candlestick Analysis may seem fanciful, but certain aspects are firmly grounded in the science of Investor Psychology. See Candlestick Analysis.
Chapter XIII:
Ordinary analysis does not show the features of the behavioral history underneath the price volume line. Here multi-spectral analysis brings the hidden features to the surface. See Multi-Spectral Analysis.
Chapter XIV:
Combining the historical behavior surfaces with the geometry of long standing periodic price oscillations yields a behavior surface of more than three dimensions which has an extremely low residual error compared to other methods of analysis. See Price Behavior Surfaces.
Part 3: Synthesis and Projections for the Future
Chapter XVI:
Predictions and Forecasts. What will happen to COST over the next few months? See COST Price Predictions.
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