Part1: An Independent View of the Analysis
Chapter I:
This look at Caterpillar begins with a Classical Time Series Analysis of the historical stock prices, providing a vantage point over patterns that will be explored in greater detail in the following chapters. See CAT Classical Analysis.
Chapter II:
Risks associated with short and long period price changes can be understood through Volatility Analysis. Here the impact of the Volatility Curve on the potential profitability positions across different time spans is shown. See Caterpillar Price Volatility.
Chapter III:
This section shows historical volumes for sales of CAT stock, along with Seasonal and Cyclical Trends in Volume. See CAT Historical Volume.
Chapter IV:
The Traditional Seasonal Analysis of Price Trends can still yield valuable predictive information. See CAT Seasonal Trends.
Chapter V:
One of the most popular indicators, the Moving Average, comes in many variations. Here we test the predictive ability of different averages as applied to prediction of Caterpillar prices. See Running Averages.
Part 2: Analysis
Chapter VI:
Some say that modern analysis began with the successful identification of technical oscillators such as the highly effective Wilder RSI. See Technical Oscillators
Chapter VII:
This chapter takes a view somewhat similar to standard analysis of seasonal trends, but it is based on the 4 year or 2 year Political Calendar rather than the 1 year Standard Calendar. Political Seasons work better than Calendar Seasons for predicting prices of many companies. See Politics and Prices of CAT.
Chapter VIII:
A sophisticated method associates price levels with historical volumes. Such semi-abstract concepts as Support and Resistance may then be defined with mathematical precision. See Volumetric Analysis
Chapter IX:
Analysis of Market Momentum as the product of Price and Volume drives an interpretation considerably more sophisticated than those that consider Price Momentum alone. See Momentum Investing Indicators.
Chapter X:
The mood of the market toward Caterpillar show up in the Daily Closing Altitude and other Sentiment Indicators. See Market Sentiment.
Chapter XI:
The chapter first converts the Price Line to several different mappings based on "Runs" or the number of consecutive price movements in a particular direction. A discussion of the "Monte Carlo Fallacy" and it's relevance to Stock Price Prediction leads to a revisionist method of Price Projection using the Bernoulli Analysis. See Bernoulli Analysis of Caterpillar
Chapter XII:
The traditional techniques of Candlestick Analysis may seem fanciful, but certain aspects are firmly grounded in the science of Investor Psychology. See Candlestick Analysis.
Chapter XIII:
Multi-spectral analysis reveals behavioral features of CAT prices that may not be apparent to ordinary analysis. See Multi-Spectral Analysis.
Chapter XIV:
The combination of multi-spectral and mult-dimensional analysis of Caterpillar historical trends, yields a rich set of behavioral surfaces. See Price Behavior Surfaces.
Part 3: Synthesis and Projections for the Future
Chapter XVI:
Forecasts are gathered from several sources to predict future price movements. See CAT Price Predictions.
|