Part1: An Overview of the Analysis
Chapter I:
Classical Analysis provides a good overview of the data for American Express, and reveals patterns that will be explored with detail in later sections. See AXP Classical Analysis.
Chapter II:
This survey looks at historical volatility of American Express prices. The risks associated with long and short term positions can be evaluated according to projected shapes of the Volatility Curve. See American Express Price Volatility.
Chapter III:
This section shows historical volumes for sales of AXP stock, along with Seasonal and Cyclical Trends in Volume. See AXP Historical Volume.
Chapter IV:
The Traditional Seasonal Analysis of Price Trends can still yield valuable predictive information. See AXP Seasonal Trends.
Chapter V:
One of the most popular indicators, the Moving Average, comes in many variations. Here we test the predictive ability of different averages as applied to prediction of American Express prices. See Running Averages.
Part 2: Traditional Analysis Topics
Chapter VI:
Technical Oscillators are compared to test their power as buy or sell signals for speculating in AXP stock. We conduct an extensive investigation of the popular "RSI" of Welles Wilder and some of its variations. See Technical Oscillators
Chapter VII:
Price Analysis according to Political Factors reveals some surprising results. Computing trends against the November based political calendar may give better predictions than the traditional calculations based on the January calendar year! See Politics and Prices of AXP.
Chapter VIII:
Volume Stratification Analysis tracks the volumes associated with price levels over the entire history of a stock. The resulting analysis yields a framework for understanding the mechanism behind support and resistance levels, and a scientific basis for predicting price behaviors due to those levels. See Volumetric Analysis
Chapter IX:
A view of Momentum Analysis that takes Volume into account as well as Price. See Momentum Investing Indicators.
Chapter X:
Technical Analysis discovers the range of moods of investors toward AXP. See Market Sentiment.
Chapter XI:
The length of "Runs", (the number of consecutive price movements up or down) reveal some new ways to visualize Price Series Data. A discussion of the "Monte Carlo Fallacy" and it's relevance to Stock Price Prediction leads to a revisionist method of Price Projection using the Bernoulli Analysis. See Bernoulli Analysis of American Express
Chapter XII:
The traditional techniques of Candlestick Analysis may seem fanciful, but certain aspects are firmly grounded in the science of Investor Psychology. See Candlestick Analysis.
Chapter XIII:
Ordinary analysis does not show the features of the behavioral history underneath the price volume line. Here multi-spectral analysis brings the hidden features to the surface. See Multi-Spectral Analysis.
Chapter XIV:
Combining the historical behavior surfaces with the geometry of long standing periodic price oscillations yields a behavior surface of more than three dimensions which has an extremely low residual error compared to other methods of analysis. See Price Behavior Surfaces.
Part 3: Synthesis and Forecasting
Chapter XVI:
Forecasts are gathered from several sources to predict future price movements. See AXP Price Predictions.
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