Part1: An Overview of the Analysis
Chapter I:
This look at Alcoa Inc begins with a Classical Time Series Analysis of the historical stock prices, providing a vantage point over patterns that will be explored in greater detail in the following chapters. See AA Classical Analysis.
Chapter II:
Understanding Price Volatility behaviour is essential to assessing the risk associated with positions across different time spans. See Alcoa Inc Price Volatility.
Chapter III:
Changes in Daily Volume are tracked in time here. Time Series Analysis demonstrates Trends and Cyclical Patterns in the number of shares transacted. See AA Historical Volume.
Chapter IV:
The Traditional Seasonal Analysis of Price Trends can still yield valuable predictive information. See AA Seasonal Trends.
Chapter V:
One of the most popular indicators, the Moving Average, comes in many variations. Here we test the predictive ability of different averages as applied to prediction of Alcoa Inc prices. See Running Averages.
Part 2: Analysis
Chapter VI:
Technical Oscillators are compared to test their power as buy or sell signals for speculating in AA stock. We conduct an extensive investigation of the popular "RSI" of Welles Wilder and some of its variations. See Technical Oscillators
Chapter VII:
This chapter takes a view somewhat similar to standard analysis of seasonal trends, but it is based on the 4 year or 2 year Political Calendar rather than the 1 year Standard Calendar. Political Seasons work better than Calendar Seasons for predicting prices of many companies. See Politics and Prices of AA.
Chapter VIII:
A sophisticated method associates price levels with historical volumes. Such semi-abstract concepts as Support and Resistance may then be defined with mathematical precision. See Volumetric Analysis
Chapter IX:
A view of Momentum Analysis that takes Volume into account as well as Price. See Momentum Investing Indicators.
Chapter X:
Technical Analysis discovers the range of moods of investors toward AA. See Market Sentiment.
Chapter XI:
This section visualizes mappings based on the number of consecutive price movements in a particular direction. A discussion of the "Monte Carlo Fallacy" and it's relevance to Stock Price Prediction leads to a revisionist method of Price Projection using the Bernoulli Analysis. See Bernoulli Analysis of Alcoa Inc
Chapter XII:
The traditional techniques of Candlestick Analysis may seem fanciful, but certain aspects are firmly grounded in the science of Investor Psychology. See Candlestick Analysis.
Chapter XIII:
Ordinary analysis does not show the features of the behavioral history underneath the price volume line. Here multi-spectral analysis brings the hidden features to the surface. See Multi-Spectral Analysis.
Chapter XIV:
Combining the historical behavior surfaces with the geometry of long standing periodic price oscillations yields a behavior surface of more than three dimensions which has an extremely low residual error compared to other methods of analysis. See Price Behavior Surfaces.
Part 3: Synthesis and Projections for the Future
Chapter XVI:
Forecasts are gathered from several sources to predict future price movements. See AA Price Predictions.
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