Chapter VII: This chapter takes a view somewhat similar to standard analysis of seasonal trends, but it is based on the 4 year or 2 year Political Calendar rather than the 1 year Standard Calendar. Political Seasons work better than Calendar Seasons for predicting prices of many companies. |
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| RF is a company whose stock does best under Democratic administrations, according to several measures. Two theories compete as to the influence of the President's political party on stock prices. One camp holds that the market reacts very to the choice of president, possibly even before election day when the outcome is forseen. Others believe the new president does not begin to materially influence the market until he has been in office for some time. |
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| Monthly Appreciation is calculated as the percentage change between the mean price of each month compared to the preceding month. Price Periods are assigned to Political Parties three different ways for this calculation. Here all three methods favor the Democrats. |
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| You may have seen charts that profile seasonal trends. This is similar, but it is based on the political calendar. The short (Congressional) cycle is 24 months long. This company yields low profitability for investors during the few months before elections, which is typical. But the next (off) year is not an improvement for RF, so this is an unusual pattern. |
Political Financials with the Influence of Congressional Elections on RF. Also, roadmap and Summary of most effective indicators: |
| In the news, Wednesday, July 28, 2010: An unfavorable condition has developed with W.W. Grainger, Inc., ticker symbol GWW. Also, there are breaking events concerning Quest Diagnostics Incorporated (DGX) and Cummins Inc. (CMI) |