Chapter VII: This chapter takes a view somewhat similar to standard analysis of seasonal trends, but it is based on the 4 year or 2 year Political Calendar rather than the 1 year Standard Calendar. Political Seasons work better than Calendar Seasons for predicting prices of many companies. |
| Prev. Co. | Next Co. | |
|
| ||
| JPM is a company whose stock does best under Democratic administrations, according to several measures. Two theories compete as to the influence of the President's political party on stock prices. One camp holds that the market reacts very to the choice of president, possibly even before election day when the outcome is forseen. Others believe the new president does not begin to materially influence the market until he has been in office for some time. |
| Prev. Co. | Next Co. | |
| ||
| Monthly Appreciation is calculated as the percentage change between the mean price of each month compared to the preceding month. Price Periods are assigned to Political Parties three different ways for this calculation. Here all three methods favor the Democrats. |
| Prev. Co. | Next Co. | |
| ||
| You may have seen charts that profile seasonal trends. This is similar, but it is based on the political calendar. The short (Congressional) cycle is 24 months long. JPM shows the typical election cycle pattern, with the worst months shortly before elections, reflecting the uncertainty. The annual dip often noticed in September, may in reality be a result of the bi-annual season of pre-election jitters. |
Political Financials with the Influence of Congressional Elections on JPM. Also, roadmap and Summary of most effective indicators: |
| Friday, March 12, 2010: We have news on ConAgra Foods, Inc., ticker symbol CAG. Signs of an over-bought condition have become noticable. Also, there are breaking events concerning Fluor Corporation (NEW) and Zimmer Holdings, Inc.. From the News Archive: (3/11/2010 ) Favorable events happened at GameStop Corp. and Zimmer Holdings, Inc.. Meanwhile, bad news came from The Goodyear Tire & Rubber Company and Omnicom Group Inc.. |