Chapter VII: This chapter takes a view somewhat similar to standard analysis of seasonal trends, but it is based on the 4 year or 2 year Political Calendar rather than the 1 year Standard Calendar. Political Seasons work better than Calendar Seasons for predicting prices of many companies. |
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| Several measures point to Republican administrations being most favorable to DIS stockholders. Two theories compete as to the influence of the President's political party on stock prices. One camp holds that the market reacts very to the choice of president, possibly even before election day when the outcome is forseen. Others believe the new president does not begin to materially influence the market until he has been in office for some time. |
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| Monthly Appreciation is calculated as the percentage change between the mean price of each month compared to the preceding month. Price Periods are assigned to Political Parties three different ways for this calculation. Republicans are favored by all measures for DIS owners. |
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| You may have seen charts that profile seasonal trends. This is similar, but it is based on the political calendar. The short (Congressional) cycle is 24 months long. Like many companies, DIS exhibits weakness in the uncertain months previous to the election. Also, like many, it tends to show stronger performance during the off-years. We believe that the well known "September Slump" is actually due in large part to the pre-election dip. |
Political Financials with the Influence of Congressional Elections on DIS. Also, roadmap and Summary of most effective indicators: |
| Friday, January 02, 2009: We have news on Intel, ticker symbol INTC. Signs of an over-bought condition have become noticable. Also, there are breaking events concerning Praxair, Inc. and Allegheny Energy, Inc.. From the News Archive: (12/31/2008 ) Favorable events happened at Fluor Corporation (NEW) and National City Corporation. Meanwhile, bad news came from Office Depot, Inc. and Automatic Data Processing. |