Chapter VII: This chapter takes a view somewhat similar to standard analysis of seasonal trends, but it is based on the 4 year or 2 year Political Calendar rather than the 1 year Standard Calendar. Political Seasons work better than Calendar Seasons for predicting prices of many companies. |
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| Whether CNX investors should hope for Democratic or Republican Presidents, depends on which measures you look at. Two theories compete as to the influence of the President's political party on stock prices. One camp holds that the market reacts very to the choice of president, possibly even before election day when the outcome is forseen. Others believe the new president does not begin to materially influence the market until he has been in office for some time. |
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| Monthly Appreciation is calculated as the percentage change between the mean price of each month compared to the preceding month. Price Periods are assigned to Political Parties three different ways for this calculation. A split decision is in the result here, according to which method you favor. But two of the three favor the Democrats. |
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| You may have seen charts that profile seasonal trends. This is similar, but it is based on the political calendar. The short (Congressional) cycle is 24 months long. CNX shows the typical election cycle pattern, with the worst months shortly before elections, reflecting the uncertainty. We believe that the well known "September Slump" is actually due in large part to the pre-election dip. |
Political Financials with the Influence of Congressional Elections on CNX. Also, roadmap and Summary of most effective indicators: |
| Friday, September 03, 2010: We have news on The Dow Chemical Company, ticker symbol DOW. A significant moving average event has happened. Also, there are breaking events concerning Nike Footwear and MeadWestvaco Corp.. From the News Archive: (9/3/2010 ) Bad news came from Mitsui & Company, Ltd., Unisys Corporation, The Allstate Corporation, and Marshall & Ilsley Corporation. |