Chapter VII: Price Analysis according to Political Factors reveals some surprising results. Computing trends against the November based political calendar may give better predictions than the traditional calculations based on the January calendar year! |
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| BDK is a company whose stock does best under Democratic administrations, according to several measures. Two theories compete as to the influence of the President's political party on stock prices. One camp holds that the market reacts very to the choice of president, possibly even before election day when the outcome is forseen. Others believe the new president does not begin to materially influence the market until he has been in office for some time. |
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| Monthly Appreciation is calculated as the percentage change between the mean price of each month compared to the preceding month. Price Periods are assigned to Political Parties three different ways for this calculation. Here all three methods favor the Democrats. |
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| You may have seen charts that profile seasonal trends. This is similar, but it is based on the political calendar. The short (Congressional) cycle is 24 months long. BDK shows the typical election cycle pattern, with the worst months shortly before elections, reflecting the uncertainty. We believe that the well known "September Slump" is actually due in large part to the pre-election dip. |
Political Financials with the Influence of Congressional Elections on BDK. Also, roadmap and Summary of most effective indicators: |
| In the news, Friday, February 18, 2011: An unfavorable condition has developed with Aetna Inc., ticker symbol AET. Also, there are breaking events concerning Dollar Tree, Inc. (DLTR) and First Niagara Financial Group Inc. (FNFG) |