Chapter VII: Price Analysis according to Political Factors reveals some surprising results. Computing trends against the November based political calendar may give better predictions than the traditional calculations based on the January calendar year! |
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| Whether BA investors should hope for Democratic or Republican Presidents, depends on which measures you look at. Two theories compete as to the influence of the President's political party on stock prices. One camp holds that the market reacts very to the choice of president, possibly even before election day when the outcome is forseen. Others believe the new president does not begin to materially influence the market until he has been in office for some time. |
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| Monthly Appreciation is calculated as the percentage change between the mean price of each month compared to the preceding month. Price Periods are assigned to Political Parties three different ways for this calculation. The indicators are not in total agreement here for BA investors. But two of the three favor the Democrats. |
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| You may have seen charts that profile seasonal trends. This is similar, but it is based on the political calendar. The short (Congressional) cycle is 24 months long. Like many companies, BA exhibits weakness in the uncertain months previous to the election. Also, like many, it tends to show stronger performance during the off-years. The annual dip often noticed in September, may in reality be a result of the bi-annual season of pre-election jitters. |
Political Financials with the Influence of Congressional Elections on BA. Also, roadmap and Summary of most effective indicators: |
| Thursday, March 18, 2010: We have news on Mylan Inc., ticker symbol MYL. Signs of an over-bought condition have become noticable. Also, there are breaking events concerning MicroSoft and Prudential Financial, Inc.. From the News Archive: (3/17/2010 ) Favorable events happened at ACM Income Fund and LoJack Corp. Meanwhile, bad news came from Sempra Energy and Walmart. |