Chapter VII: A different type of Seasonal Analysis is applied to AW historical prices. Here the 24 month, November based Political Calendar is the basis for non-standard Seasonal Analysis. |
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| AW is a company whose stock does best under Democratic administrations, according to several measures. Two theories compete as to the influence of the President's political party on stock prices. One camp holds that the market reacts very to the choice of president, possibly even before election day when the outcome is forseen. Others believe the new president does not begin to materially influence the market until he has been in office for some time. |
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| Monthly Appreciation is calculated as the percentage change between the mean price of each month compared to the preceding month. Price Periods are assigned to Political Parties three different ways for this calculation. Here all three methods favor the Democrats. |
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| You may have seen charts that profile seasonal trends. This is similar, but it is based on the political calendar. The short (Congressional) cycle is 24 months long. Like many companies, AW exhibits weakness in the uncertain months previous to the election. Also, like many, it tends to show stronger performance during the off-years. We believe that the well known "September Slump" is actually due in large part to the pre-election dip. |
Political Financials with the Influence of Congressional Elections on AW. Also, roadmap and Summary of most effective indicators: |
| Wednesday, March 17, 2010: We have news on General Electric, ticker symbol GE. Signs of an over-bought condition have become noticable. Also, there are breaking events concerning Intel and Marsh & McLennan Companies, Inc.. From the News Archive: (3/12/2010 ) A favorable event happened at Texas Instruments Incorporated. Meanwhile, bad news came from CitiGroup, ConAgra Foods, Inc., and Convergys Corporation. |