Chapter VII: This chapter takes a view somewhat similar to standard analysis of seasonal trends, but it is based on the 4 year or 2 year Political Calendar rather than the 1 year Standard Calendar. Political Seasons work better than Calendar Seasons for predicting prices of many companies. |
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| Several measures point to Republican administrations being most favorable to AMR stockholders. Two theories compete as to the influence of the President's political party on stock prices. One camp holds that the market reacts very to the choice of president, possibly even before election day when the outcome is forseen. Others believe the new president does not begin to materially influence the market until he has been in office for some time. |
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| Monthly Appreciation is calculated as the percentage change between the mean price of each month compared to the preceding month. Price Periods are assigned to Political Parties three different ways for this calculation. Republicans are favored by all measures for AMR owners. |
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| You may have seen charts that profile seasonal trends. This is similar, but it is based on the political calendar. The short (Congressional) cycle is 24 months long. This company yields low profitability for investors during the few months before elections, which is typical. But the next (off) year is not an improvement for AMR, so this is an unusual pattern. |
Political Financials with the Influence of Congressional Elections on AMR. Also, roadmap and Summary of most effective indicators: |
| Thursday, March 18, 2010: We have news on Mylan Inc., ticker symbol MYL. Signs of an over-bought condition have become noticable. Also, there are breaking events concerning Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. and MicroSoft. From the News Archive: (3/17/2010 ) Favorable events happened at ACM Income Fund and LoJack Corp. Meanwhile, bad news came from Prudential Financial, Inc. and Sempra Energy. |