Chapter VII: A different type of Seasonal Analysis is applied to ADSK historical prices. Here the 24 month, November based Political Calendar is the basis for non-standard Seasonal Analysis. |
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| Several measures point to Republican administrations being most favorable to ADSK stockholders. Two theories compete as to the influence of the President's political party on stock prices. One camp holds that the market reacts very to the choice of president, possibly even before election day when the outcome is forseen. Others believe the new president does not begin to materially influence the market until he has been in office for some time. |
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| Monthly Appreciation is calculated as the percentage change between the mean price of each month compared to the preceding month. Price Periods are assigned to Political Parties three different ways for this calculation. Republicans are favored by all measures for ADSK owners. |
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| You may have seen charts that profile seasonal trends. This is similar, but it is based on the political calendar. The short (Congressional) cycle is 24 months long. Like many companies, ADSK exhibits weakness in the uncertain months previous to the election. Also, like many, it tends to show stronger performance during the off-years. We believe that the well known "September Slump" is actually due in large part to the pre-election dip. |
Political Financials with the Influence of Congressional Elections on ADSK. Also, roadmap and Summary of most effective indicators: |
| In the news, Friday, March 19, 2010: An unfavorable condition has developed with Cincinnati Financial Corporation, ticker symbol CINF. Also, there are breaking events concerning Pre-Paid Legal (PPD) and Electronic Data Systems (EDS) |