Chapter VII: This chapter takes a view somewhat similar to standard analysis of seasonal trends, but it is based on the 4 year or 2 year Political Calendar rather than the 1 year Standard Calendar. Political Seasons work better than Calendar Seasons for predicting prices of many companies. |
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| ADI is a company whose stock does best under Democratic administrations, according to several measures. Two theories compete as to the influence of the President's political party on stock prices. One camp holds that the market reacts very to the choice of president, possibly even before election day when the outcome is forseen. Others believe the new president does not begin to materially influence the market until he has been in office for some time. |
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| Monthly Appreciation is calculated as the percentage change between the mean price of each month compared to the preceding month. Price Periods are assigned to Political Parties three different ways for this calculation. Here all three methods favor the Democrats. |
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| You may have seen charts that profile seasonal trends. This is similar, but it is based on the political calendar. The short (Congressional) cycle is 24 months long. Like many companies, ADI exhibits weakness in the uncertain months previous to the election. Also, like many, it tends to show stronger performance during the off-years. The annual dip often noticed in September, may in reality be a result of the bi-annual season of pre-election jitters. |
Political Financials with the Influence of Congressional Elections on ADI. Also, roadmap and Summary of most effective indicators: |
| In the news, Friday, March 12, 2010: An unfavorable condition has developed with Convergys Corporation, ticker symbol CVG. Also, there are breaking events concerning ConAgra Foods, Inc. (CAG) and Pre-Paid Legal (PPD) |