Chapter IV: The Traditional Seasonal Analysis of Price Trends can still yield valuable predictive information. |
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| Viewing the Calendar Trends, we see that United States Steel Corporation does not fit the most common pattern. For the average common stock, low prices are most likely previous to the month of November. Averaged over the last 19 years, X exhibits a strong spread between the high and low months of 25.45 percent. For this chart, price plots for each year are traced on top of each other. Each month's value is adjusted to the mean price for the particular year. The orange line represents the average monthy price expressed as a portion of the annual price. |
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| Investors in United States Steel Corporation should consider staying in cash during September. Here, the profitability of the month is defined as the percentage change between the mean price on the first day of the month and the mean price on the last day of the month. So the figures displayed here refer to the average change during each month, rather than changes between months. A quick 10.31 percent gain has rewarded those who have speculated during the month of December. |
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| The 'Monthly Profitability' discussed above applies to holdings during the course of a single month. Another, perhaps more realistic evaluation is the one charted here. Here the value evaluated is the highest price reached at anytime during the next quarter. Investors shrewd enough to invest in United States Steel Corporation during November have seen an average maximum gain of 28.54 percent at some time in the following 60 trading days. |
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This plot of the average monthly price as a proportion of the average yearly price removes the year-to-year secular trend. However the within-year trend is still intact, so it is expected that the December value might be higher than the January average, for a healthy company. The potential gain has been 25.45 percent from November to the next June. This is 43.63 percent when converted to an annual return. Investing 'against the tide' of the seasonal trend can cost an annualized 61.08 percent. Before making any decisions based on the standard 12 Month Seasonal Calendar, be sure to check the characteristics of the 24 Month Political Election Calendar. Research shows that many characteristics of the traditional seasonal averages are actually induced by events in the 24 month political cycle, so the characteristics of even versus odd numbered years may be quite distinct. |
Much Deeper Market Timing Analysis with X roadmap and Summary of most effective indicators: |
| In the news, Friday, March 12, 2010: An unfavorable condition has developed with ConAgra Foods, Inc., ticker symbol CAG. Also, there are breaking events concerning Fluor Corporation (NEW) (FLR) and Compuware (CPWR) |