Chapter IV: A look at Traditional Seasonal Analysis of Tyco Historical Prices identifies the best and worst months to be invested. |
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| Lowest prices for TYC often occur in the Fall months. This is typical of American Common Stock issues. A 5.4 percent spread has rewarded the seasonal investor for nearly 23 years. For this chart, price plots for each year are traced on top of each other. Each month's value is adjusted to the mean price for the particular year. The orange line represents the average monthy price expressed as a portion of the annual price. |
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| TYC speculators might well avoid the month of September. Here, the profitability of the month is defined as the percentage change between the mean price on the first day of the month and the mean price on the last day of the month. So the figures displayed here refer to the average change during each month, rather than changes between months. |
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| The 'Monthly Profitability' discussed above applies to holdings during the course of a single month. Another, perhaps more realistic evaluation is the one charted here. Here the value evaluated is the highest price reached at anytime during the next quarter. Tyco speculators who have taken positions starting in April gain 15.61 percent, judged by the maximum price attained during the next three months. |
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This plot of the average monthly price as a proportion of the average yearly price removes the year-to-year secular trend. However the within-year trend is still intact, so it is expected that the December value might be higher than the January average, for a healthy company. The potential gain has been 5.4 percent from October to the next December. This is 32.40 percent when converted to an annual return. On the other hand, those who catch the seasonal wave wrong, can loose money at an annual rate of 6.5 percent. Before making any decisions based on the standard 12 Month Seasonal Calendar, be sure to check the characteristics of the 24 Month Political Election Calendar. Research shows that many characteristics of the traditional seasonal averages are actually induced by events in the 24 month political cycle, so the characteristics of even versus odd numbered years may be quite distinct. |
Much Deeper Market Timing Analysis with TYC roadmap and Summary of most effective indicators: |
| Thursday, March 11, 2010: We have news on Southwestern Energy Company, ticker symbol SWN. A significant moving average event has happened. Also, there are breaking events concerning Zimmer Holdings, Inc. and Zimmer Holdings, Inc.. From the News Archive: (3/10/2010 ) A favorable event happened at LoJack Corp. Meanwhile, bad news came from American International Group, Inc., Carnival Corporation, and Vulcan Materials Company. |