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| Sun Microsystems does not fit the typical Seasonal pattern. Usually, the lowest prices occur in the Fall Months. SUNWshows a strong seasonal bias of 13.22 percent, when averaged over the last 20 years. For this chart, price plots for each year are traced on top of each other. Each month's value is adjusted to the mean price for the particular year. The orange line represents the average monthy price expressed as a portion of the annual price. |
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| SUNW speculators might well avoid the month of March. Here, the profitability of the month is defined as the percentage change between the mean price on the first day of the month and the mean price on the last day of the month. So the figures displayed here refer to the average change during each month, rather than changes between months. A quick 7.38 percent gain has rewarded those who have speculated during the month of January. |
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| The 'Monthly Profitability' discussed above applies to holdings during the course of a single month. Another, perhaps more realistic evaluation is the one charted here. Here the value evaluated is the highest price reached at anytime during the next quarter. Sun Microsystems speculators who have taken positions starting in November gain 30.28 percent, judged by the maximum price attained during the next three months. |
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This plot of the average monthly price as a proportion of the average yearly price removes the year-to-year secular trend. However the within-year trend is still intact, so it is expected that the December value might be higher than the January average, for a healthy company. Over the span of 6 months from May to November a gain of 13.22 percent has occurred historically. This is an annual rate of 26.4 percent. On the other hand, those who catch the seasonal wave wrong, can loose money at an annual rate of 26.4 percent. Before making any decisions based on the standard 12 Month Seasonal Calendar, be sure to check the characteristics of the 24 Month Political Election Calendar. Research shows that many characteristics of the traditional seasonal averages are actually induced by events in the 24 month political cycle, so the characteristics of even versus odd numbered years may be quite distinct. |
Much Deeper Market Timing Analysis with SUNW roadmap and Summary of most effective indicators: |
| Monday, February 08, 2010: We have news on American International Group, Inc., ticker symbol AIG. Some signs of an over-sold condition have become evident. Also, there are breaking events concerning Nicor Inc. and Wells Fargo & Company. From the News Archive: (2/5/2010 ) Favorable events happened at Pactiv Corporation, Marathon Oil Corporation, and Regions Financial Corporation. Meanwhile, bad news came from Genzyme Corporation. |