| Prev. Co. | Next Co. | |
|
| ||
| Viewing the Calendar Trends, we see that Sears Holdings Corporation does not fit the most common pattern. Usually, the lowest prices occur in the Fall Months. Averaged over the last 7 years, SHLD exhibits a strong spread between the high and low months of 20.18 percent. For this chart, price plots for each year are traced on top of each other. Each month's value is adjusted to the mean price for the particular year. The orange line represents the average monthy price expressed as a portion of the annual price. |
| Prev. Co. | Next Co. | |
| ||
| SHLD speculators might well avoid the month of November. Here, the profitability of the month is defined as the percentage change between the mean price on the first day of the month and the mean price on the last day of the month. So the figures displayed here refer to the average change during each month, rather than changes between months. By this measure, the month of March appears favorable, offering a quick return averaging 19.51 percent. |
| Prev. Co. | Next Co. | |
| ||
| The 'Monthly Profitability' discussed above applies to holdings during the course of a single month. Another, perhaps more realistic evaluation is the one charted here. Here the value evaluated is the highest price reached at anytime during the next quarter. Sears Holdings Corporation speculators who have taken positions starting in March gain 39.22 percent, judged by the maximum price attained during the next three months. |
| Prev. Co. | Next Co. | |
| ||
|
This plot of the average monthly price as a proportion of the average yearly price removes the year-to-year secular trend. However the within-year trend is still intact, so it is expected that the December value might be higher than the January average, for a healthy company. The potential gain has been 20.18 percent from January to the next June. This is 48.43 percent when converted to an annual return. On the other hand, those who catch the seasonal wave wrong, can loose money at an annual rate of 34.6 percent. Before making any decisions based on the standard 12 Month Seasonal Calendar, be sure to check the characteristics of the 24 Month Political Election Calendar. Research shows that many characteristics of the traditional seasonal averages are actually induced by events in the 24 month political cycle, so the characteristics of even versus odd numbered years may be quite distinct. |
Much Deeper Market Timing Analysis with SHLD roadmap and Summary of most effective indicators: |
| Wednesday, March 17, 2010: We have news on ACM Income Fund, ticker symbol ACG. Some signs of an over-sold condition have become evident. Also, there are breaking events concerning CIGNA Corporation and Prudential Financial, Inc.. From the News Archive: (3/17/2010 ) A favorable event happened at LoJack Corp. Meanwhile, bad news came from PPL Corporation, Walmart, and Procter and Gamble. |